September Equinox comes in on the 22nd with the Sun crossing South through the Celestial Equator - these points can quite often correlate with significant shifts in the market. These dates are marked on the Square of Nine which align with the four Cardinal points of 0 Deg or Mar 21st Equinox where the Sun is crossing North through the Celestial equator which saw Low on Mar 24th on Bitcoin now at the 180 Deg point the market is tracking higher in the opposite direction so a point to exercise caution. In the notes below I have examined the 2018 campaign which had Top on Sept 4th followed by a -18.2% decline then the 2019 campaign running out the 5 year Cycle which also had Top on Sept 6th almost on Anniversary date in the annual Cycle which was also followed by a steep decline of -33.2% into late Oct and then the 2021 swing which had an extended move into Sept 7th proceeded by a two week 25% decline into Sept 21st so it is interesting to note in all three instances Seasonal Top was reached in the first week of Sept followed by big declines so now we are in the third week of Sept as we move into the Equinox. The market is trading higher out of the 18th Full Moon as we move towards the first quarter on the 25th. Looking at past time periods in the notes below we can see in 2018 we ran up 21 days into Sept Top - in 2019 we ran up 8 days into Sept Top and in 2021 we ran up 77 days off the base and 49 days off the higher low so the closest match in terms of time is 2018 running out 21 days against the projected time period of 17 days which are fairly well balanced. You can also see the recent swings beginning from Mar 20th 2024 which are all outlined below. By studying the amplitude and time periods of past swings we can get a line on what to expect into the future. As can be seen all of the recent swings within the current price structure measure between 19-24 days against the projected Top into Sept 23rd which measures 17 days so the periods are fairly well balanced and in each instance a significant decline proceeded these time intervals so by having this information laid out enables us to understand how the market reacted historically under a similar set of conditions. In regards to price we are just below the 61.8% retracement level measured from the 73794 Top - 49594 Low but the main consideration is the Time Factor and how we move up into this point over the next two sessions. Taking the 49594 base x 1.25 = 62000 so we are currently above this zone - then taking that same figure 49594 x 1.333 = 66000 so that would be a natural harmonic point to watch and see if price can remain below this point.
At the present time I just wanted to release the Sept 23rd date as a potential Top so that those who are already long can exercise caution around this date and possibly lock in a profit before their position becomes at risk or alternatively those looking to go short out of the 23rd have a few days to prepare a trading plan and get ready for a potential downmove.
Ideally we would like to see a lower bar proceeding the projected 23rd Top as a point of confirmation and in which case a time based stop would be set just above the 23rd as price has to trade lower and remain below that date to qualify the cycle - sometimes the cycle dates can come in -1/+1 so in some instances it may also be prudent to watch the 15 or 30 min chart to see what type of pattern or structure is developing and if we are maintaining under the target date.
At the moment I am working on three dates where a Low could come in so hopefully in the next few days we should have a clearer idea of where this is scheduled to occur which will enable us to structure our trading plans and risk parameters around this point. The three dates I am working with are the 2nd 4th or 7th which gives us a time period of roughly over a week in the potential trade if it sets up . By studying previous declines we can see the figures were quite significant at -18.2% - 33.2% - 25% so even at present without trying to calculate the exact low date we still could have considerable scope for a move down if the setup does play out.
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