Price has dropped heavily into the 21st Nov Cycle date . The amplitude of the drop was quite a bit more than I initially expected with all of the price targets being taken out in the two day slide . The Notes below are an outline of previous Cycles that should assist us in determining the future course of Crude and the potential amplitude of the price swings . My first approach is to trace out all of the previous swings and label the time duration for each swing and measure the price amplitude sometimes in terms of price and percentage increase or decrease which can provide us with an insight into what to expect going forward. The first swing down in 2021 ran out 39 days a decline of 26.9% making low on the 2nd Dec. The second swing which was a large drop ran out 83 days a decline of 45% into the 25th Dec Low . The next two diagrams examine the 2016 and 2012 campaigns running out 26 and 55 days into their respective lows . The tracing at the bottom of the page in red pen is the current swing down beginning at the 14th June Top. So far we are about 161 days off the main Top leading into the 21st Nov which would indicate that we still have another potential leg down to complete the 180 Deg Cycle . The current time period of 161 days into the 21st Nov Low overbalances all of the previous swings in time by quite a margin with the current price down around 39% which is greater in amplitude than all of the previous swings except the 2018 swing which was a 45% drop peak to trough so we are currently sitting at around 6% below this figure - these are only guidelines and the main consideration is the Time Cycles and quite often price will repeat either the point difference or percentage difference of previous ranges so it is handy to have a table of previous ranges that can be used as a comparison guide as we move into the target dates . The move up into the 7th Nov Top was 147 days from the 14th June Top which is very close to the 144 day Cycle and 43 days out from the 26th Sept Low - The proportionate parts or divisions of the Circle are important time periods for a change in trend especially when they align from multiple points.
The Curve presented below contains two sections to trade . If price holds above the 21st Nov Low we could see a counter trend rally up to the 29th Nov which sets up as an intermediate date which is on the Angle of 22 1/2 Deg out from the 7th Nov Top then from there we could be down till either the 10th or 16th Dec where main Low is indicated . The first objective is to trade out of the current 21st Nov Low so the Curve indicates a rise of around 16.5 - 17.5% into the 29th Nov roughly one week in the position then if we set up into Top and align with one or two of the price levels we could look to reverse the position with trend projected down till at least the 10th Dec. It is very IMPORTANT to wait for the target date to roll in before executing a trade . We need to let the market confirm that it is either trending up or down into the date and if we run up in line with the Curve and make counter trend Top on the 29th Nov in most cases we should be able to determine if the market is leading into that date a few days before hand and it will become clear that price is setting up for Top into that date . You will make more money and increase your accuracy by trading out of the Cycles once that point is confirmed even if it requires waiting for another week for the Cycle date to arrive - patience is key and in most instances the market pattern and volume will provide a strong clue leading into that point.
Dec 9th - 12th will be an important date to watch for potential Low - this period comes in over the weekend and is 180 Deg in longitude from the 14th June 123.68 Top so there is a good chance we could be running out 180 days from high to low. This would be the main date to watch if we begin to come off the 29th Top so at least we have a roadmap and we will be prepared for those dates as we lead into them .
The current price of 75.08 is approx 180 Deg in longitude from the 93.74 Top so there is a strong chance we could see a minor reaction off this price level - A price of 79.50 is on the Time Angle so we are ahead of time by around 4.42 so another rise is indicated to balance price . Looking ahead to the 9th - 12th Dec where Low is indicated I have projected a few price targets just as a reference guide to be aware of if we do drop into this date . Please note these are only price levels to monitor if we do move down into the Dec target date so we can come back to these points in the future and see if they are aligning with the Curve . 4
66.50 = 180 Deg in longitude from the 123.68 Top
67.25 = 90 Deg in longitude from the 93.74 Top
A price of 69.90 is on the Degree of the 9th Dec Time Angle so if we trade below this point on that date we will be below the Square and in a position to go lower .
Please see Curve below
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