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Nifty Update

Updated: Dec 19, 2022

The first page looks at the recent move up from the 17th June Low . Notice there are two downside ranges that have been highlighted . The first range down is Minor running 10 days into the 29th Aug Low for a 4.6% decline and the second swing down ran out 15 days into the 30th Sept Low which was a 7.4% drop in a slightly longer time period . These two declines are useful as they could give us an indication on how far the current down move will run so it is important to compare past ranges and price amplitude to determine the likely duration and magnitude of the price swing . From the 1st Dec Top at 18887 we are currently down around 3.4% which is under both percentage targets so we could expect more downside in the next week or so to balance against the previous ranges . I have projected 4.6% down from the 1st Dec Top which gives us an initial target of 18019 and the second target down is 17490 which is a 7.4% drop so both of these points could be important and should be marked on the charts as reference points if we continue to move down into the Cycle dates . Think of these levels as road signs - they are not exact all of the time but they will provide you with a price structure based on previous movements that should be watched particularly as we move into a key Cycle date .

The Curve below outlines three important dates to watch extending out till the 13th Feb 2023 . If we hold above current levels we could move up into the 26th Dec which is the first key date to prepare for . We should be patient for the next few days and wait for this date to approach as that will be the first date we are looking to trade OUT of . If the market continues to move up into that date there is a good chance we could set up for counter trend Top so hopefully a few days before this point we should be able to determine if the market will align with our model and set up into Minor Top . From the 26th Dec trend could be down till the 2nd Jan where Main Low is indicated so this swing trade will only be around a week so if we get some good profits on the downside it would be wise to exit even a day or two beforehand and wait for the Main 2nd Dec point to come in and you could even just sit on the side lines for another week or so and just wait for this date to come in if you choose . This is the first swing section I am concentrating on and if we do move down into the 2nd Jan we could be up till the 13th Feb for Top but before that there is another intermediate Cycle due on the 16th Jan so if we move up off the 2nd Jan Low the first date to watch is the 16th Jan so that will be our first signpost to watch and from that point we should have a good idea of where we are headed and can plan accordingly even if it means taking a break for a week or two and waiting for the next setup to come in . It is important to wait for the Cycles to come in and then once the dates are validated and match against the direction of the Curve we can then trade ( OUT ) of that date - this is the safest form of trading as quite often price and time will line up into these points providing a clear sense of market direction so by waiting for these points to come in we increase our probability of being on the right side of the market .

There are a few price Notes and levels that can be drawn on your charts as reference points.

2 Squares down from the Top = 18339 so we are currently below that point

4 Squares down from the Low = 17802 so if we move down into the 2nd Jan this could become an important price point to monitor but the percentage decline of the two previous ranges at 4.6% and 7.4% will become strong markers if they align into the 2nd Dec target date . The post below is the original Forecast for the 30th Nov Top so it may be worth another read to acquaint yourself .

It looks like we could be Top on the 30th Nov being today - There is a group of intermediate Time Cycles and Number counts pointing towards the 29th - 30th Nov so this would be a sensible point to exercise caution if playing the long side of the market for several reasons which I will outline below . Chart No 1 is a tracing of the Nifty extending back to the 19th Oct 2021 Top at 18604 which has just recently been breached with the market appearing to exhaust up into this level culminating with a potential Cycle Top . If we look at the Chart below all of the upside swings have been labelled including the time and price components for each respective swing . The first swing into R1 ran out 29 days an advance of 1940 pts or 11.8% - The second swing at R2 ran out 27 days in time an advance of 2443 pts or 15.5% and the recent swing up into the 15th Dec Top at 18096 ran out a 90 day Cycle from Low an advance of 2913 pts or 19.8%. In order to determine the potential duration and amplitude of this move we must go back in history and examine previous swings that are similar in amplitude and through this process we can get a line on what to expect in the future . Market swings are very similar in pattern amplitude and duration and at times it is necessary to go back several years to locate the particular swing that we are running against . As you can appreciate this is not an exact science however through studying past campaigns we can can construct a template to be used as a comparative tool against past swings - sometimes the duration of swings are balanced in time and this can be seen between the two ranges R1 and R2 which both ran out 27 and 29 days into Top so these two ranges were balanced in time although the price amplitude between both swings were marginally different . Market movements are similar to the petrol tank in your car - if you put a certain amount of petrol into the tank and drive the same route everyday you will average out the same distance under similar conditions - Each swing in the market is driven by a certain amount of volume which is unique to that particular swing so under similar conditions and volume mass the market will repeat around the same price amplitude as previous swings but Time is the most important factor which will overbalance both space and time . The current swing up from the 16th June Low into the ( projected Top ) of the 30th Sept is 165 days in time so we are not against a large Fixed Cycle so we should only expect a short term pullback from this point . The main time count runs into the 18th - 20th Dec as outlined on the Chart - This will be a very significant point for a market reversal and as you can see this date will run out a 52 week Cycle from the 20th Dec 2021 and an intermediate 180 Deg Cycle from the 17th June low so we have two Cycles culminating into this point which should mark Low - these dates will be outlined on the Curve below. Notice that the market ran out 90 Deg into the 19th Sept which was very close to the 15th Sept Top. The red price lines on the top of the Chart mark the balancing points of previous ranges and we have a cluster of two important price levels linking up into this point . R1 projected up from the 16747 low = 18687 - R3 projected up from the 16747 low = 18940 so at these two levels we will balance the previous two ranges which will give us an indication as to how far this move will run up . The Current leg up from the 30th Sept Low = 2069 pts up to present around 12.3% which is very close to balancing against the 18th Jan range which appears to be the closest fit.

The Time period I am focusing on at present is a Top into the 30th Nov with main trend down till the 15th Dec where main Low is indicated . As outlined earlier we are only 165 days into the ( 30th Nov Top ) so to complete this Cycle we need to run out another 15 days or so into the 15th Dec to complete the 180 Deg Cycle . If we do begin to move down off the 30th Nov Top I will try to determine the potential amplitude of the swing down but as a measure we could project the 1349 figure down which may give us a rough indication as to what to expect . Please see Nifty Curve below . There are also two Minor swings included which are obviously not as strong as the two main dates so as the main trend is projected down we could look to use these dates to enter short but it would be strongly advised to only use these short term dates if they set up as counter trend top and on the next bar we open lower in which regard a stop could be placed above the bar ( a time based stop ) and then we could run the position down into the projected 15th Dec Low .

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