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Wheat

Have recently started looking at Wheat and had quite a busy few days preparing this Forecast so hopefully this will be of interest to anyone following the Wheat Market .

Page No 1 looks at 2020 two years back and 2016 six years back and 2017 five years back in order to ascertain which Cycle we are most closely aligned with . Beginning with 2020 we can see Top was made on the 20th Oct which is similar to the 10th October 2022 Top with main trend down till the 7th Dec 2020 a decline of 12.2% in 49 days time - each swing within this campaign has been broken down into its individual time components with each swing displaying either the percentage incline or decline which will serve as a handy measure to compare against the current swings to determine both the potential amplitude and duration of the minor swings .

The second tracing outlines the 2016 swing which also came in for Top on the 14th Oct with main trend running down into the 1st Dec for a decline of 13.7% in around 48 days. There are quite a few technical similarities between these two swings ( 2016 + 2020 ) in particular the time periods in between each of the minor swings and the percentage gain or loss is fairly well balanced . Notice the first swing down was 12 days against 11 days as an example and the overall time period between both swings was AB 49 days and AB 48 days with both declines measuring 12.2% + 13.7% so there is obviously a clear line of symmetry and Cyclical convergence between the 2016 and 2020 campaign which is why I have selected these two models to study.

The current Top came in on the 10th Oct which is just past the 195 Seasonal Degree on the Square of Nine an important point for reversals in trend sometimes they can come in as either Minor or intermediate points depending on the underlying strength of the Cycles at play at that time . Page No 2 looks at the current swing in a bit more detail and on the third page you can see that the current move down off the 10th Oct Top has already declined 13.7% which exceeds the 2020 swing of 12.2% in a shorter period of time . If we look at the 2016 swing which measures 13.7% into the 1st Dec Low we can see the current price move is balanced against that point so if we do get Low on the 7th Nov we will have declined the same percentage factor as the 2016 swing which could be significant . A study of all of the previous campaigns identify December as a Seasonal turning point with the main points being the 7th Dec 2020 and 1st Dec 2016 with both dates culminating in the Bear Low so it could be the case that main trend could be down into 8th Dec where Main Low is indicated.

A decline of 13.7% off the 10th Oct 949 Top would bring us down to 819 so this will be an important marker to watch as it will balance the 2016 campaign in price .

Also included are a few price calculations that are derived from various points which are outlined below so I will try to go over these notes . Quite often I use harmonic ratios of Tops and Bottoms which establish a framework of numbers that help me gauge the potential amplitude of a particular movement and also when prices move either up or down into these zones and culminate on Time Cycles at the same point it can usually point towards a shift in the market so whilst these figures are not an approximate projection they do provide a harmonic structure and we can examine how prices are moving around these levels .


Two Squares up = 836 so the current price is below this point indicating possible further weakness.

725 Low x 1.125 = 815 2/3 an important harmonic point to observe

We will have to wait for the 7th Nov tonight to see how things play out - If we do get a Low into this point it could be an important turning point but it would be advised to wait for this point to set up over the next day and then we should be in a position to validate it as a Low . In the paragraph below I will present a Curve for Wheat and outline all of the important turning points.


Wheat Curve :


There are four main dates to watch the first being the 7th Nov which could set up as low so we will have to watch the next bar and see how we play out this evening . The two important prices to watch are 800 and 805 so if we do move down into the 7th Nov watch to see if price can hold and stabilize above these levels . The next date to watch is the 15th Nov which could present as a Low then up into the 22nd Nov for Top then down to the 8th Dec where Main Low is indicated . It is important to realise that the main trend is projected down into the 8th Dec so it would be wise to wait for these dates to roll around and look to trade short off the counter trend Tops so if the 15th Nov does set up as minor low you would only look to be in that position for a week before a reversal is expected . There are two Curves presented containing the four key dates so it would prudent to wait for these dates to roll in and then we can align that point against the respective Curve to determine if that date is either setting up as top or bottom and once that bar has been confirmed by a lower open the following day we could trade towards the next Cycle date and place a Time based stop just above the Cycle date as a precaution . Previous Cycles have all traded lower into the first week of December so there is a strong probability that we will continue to repeat past Cycles into the 8th Dec where Main Low is indicated .







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