Here are some additional Notes on the SP500 :
It could be the case that the 14th Oct Low holds in place and the trend continues to move up in line with the Curve . Looking back we had Major Lows on the 10th Oct 2002 running out the 20 Year Cycle and in 2011 we made Low on the 5th Oct and these were the only Bear Lows that occurred within a 60 year timespan so it is interesting to note we are 20 years and almost 10 years out from these points . Looking at the 2002 Cycle we ran up 55 days into the 3rd Dec an advance of 24% which balances against the projected time period into the 9th Dec Top measuring 57 days so it could be the case we are running out a similar time period . Projecting the price amplitude of that movement up = 4336 which seems a bit unrealistic at this point however it is handy to have these measurements written down for future reference. There is also some technical similarity between the 30th March swing which ran up 12.7% in 33 days which is less than the current time period but the focus is on the prices .
Projecting 12.7% from the 3491 Low = 3934 and we are currently above that point but if we project the 523 pt range up from the 3491 Low we get 4014 which aligns with the price calculations so it will be interesting to see if we are repeating that range in price as we move into the target dates . There is a similar pattern of movement between the 25th Feb and 14th Oct Low with both swings moving up and then moving down a few days into a small corrective Low before moving higher into the 30th March. There is also another small date the 21st Nov which is not included in the Curve but it could be an interesting point to watch particularly if we begin to move lower into this date so we will just keep this date as a reference point - it is only a minor grade Cycle so I will include it for future reference just in case . Keep an eye on 4014 and 4024 these are the two key price levels.
Initial analysis pointed towards a Low coming in on this date but with the market running up it appears we could be setting up for Top. Once a date has been identified it is very important to wait for that Cycle to roll around and the position and pattern of the market leading into that date should provide us with a clear indication as to whether that particular date is either setting up as a potential Top or Bottom . I always trade out of Cycles which increases your probability of being correct even it requires waiting for a week or two for that date to draw closer . Sometimes Cycle inversions occur where a date is put forward and instead of it printing as a Low it can come in as Top so in the case there is a strong indication that the 15th Nov will be a reversal point and with the market gapping up into this point we have quite a strong level of confirmation that we could be Top so it is advised to trade out of these dates and let the position of the market determine whether Top or Bottom is in play .
On the page below is an outline of the three corrective swings within the recent down campaign beginning 5th Jan 2022 . Notice the first upswing into the 30th March running out 33 days an advance of 523pts . The second minor swing running 13 days into the 2nd June an advance of 367 pts . Current swing into the projected 15th Nov Top measures 33 days in time which balances against the March time period of 32 days so it appears we are running up against this swing in terms of price and potential price amplitude- currently we are up around 467 pts off the 14th Oct Low so to balance price we would have to reach 4014 which is 4 Squares up an important harmonic price point to monitor .
The 15th Nov is 90 Deg out from the 16th August Top and 45 weeks out from the Main Jan Top so we have two Fixed Cycles culminating on this date .
If we continue to move up over the next two sessions keep an eye on
4014
4022
At the moment I am in a full time position so it is very difficult to devote as much time as I would like to this project so hopefully in the near future if subscriptions reach a stable level I will seek to go part time and concentrate my efforts on this project . In the meantime thanks for your ongoing support . Rgds Grant
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