3rd Jan Crude Oil

Looks like we could have a little pullback into the 28-29th Jan in line with the Curve but please be aware that this could only be a short term trading opportunity with trend projected up into the 3rd Jan Top which should produce quite a strong reversal. The Notes below show the run up into the 15th Dec Minor Top which was a 7.69% advance off the base which balances against the second upswing of 7.85% so these two swings are in harmony. Currently we are off around 5.4% which is just under the previous decline so there is a chance that we could balance against this range which would take us down to around 76.56 so that would be an important price zone to monitor . Also notice the reduction in volume into the 16th Dec Low which balances against the current volume mass into the 28-29th Dec so a good chance for a Minor Low and a quick move up into the 7th Jan so if you decide to trade this micro move it would be wise to even exit a day earlier if we get a strong move up towards the 3rd Jan. The two important price levels to monitor below the current swing are 75.50 and 75.40 so we could mark these points on the 60 minute chart and look for a selloff into these points.

If we keep moving up into the 3rd Jan we could be Top. Initially I was looking for a Low into this date but there is a good chance we could be setting up for quite a strong Top into this point . The time period from the 9th Dec Low is 25 days which will be the longest counter trend move up since the 14th June Top . Most counter trend reactions within the current structure measure between 7 and 14 days except the swing up into the 7th Nov Top which ran out 20 days in time so we could be balancing against this time period if we continue to move up into the 3rd Jan . As the main trend is projected up into the 3rd Jan it may be wise to wait for this date to approach if carrying long positions as Oil has a historical tendency to either spike up or down into Top or Bottom so we should keep an eye on the pattern of trend and the cumulative volume of this particular move in relation to past swings as quite often the cumulative mass or the collective volume of each swing can also balance just like price and offer a good indication as to how much petrol is left in the tank for a particular movement to expire . By calculating the cumulative volume for each prominent swing you can examine if the the current mass is in line with previous swings and that can provide an important clue as to how much volume is required over the next few sessions to balance against previous swings and by knowing exactly how much petrol is left in the tank we are able to in most cases determine how much distance we are able to travel.

If we examine the move up from the 9th Dec Low which is outlined in the notes below you can see there was a minor pullback into the 16th Dec before resumption of uptrend. This was only a 5.7% pullback or 4.44 in a day so I am looking at the possibility of another small pullback of the same magnitude and duration ( possibly ) into the 28th Dec which also culminates on a minor Cycle date so if we do get a small counter trend Low into this point it could serve as a good entry point to ride the move up into the 3rd Jan but we should be very discerning and only trade this movement if it prints as a Minor Low as the primary trend is geared up into the 3rd Jan and this will only be a small position trade of less than a week . As the previous pullback only declined for a day and around 5.7% we could use these figures as an indication on what to expect. The current move up into 80.33 has advanced around 14.6% which is greater in amplitude than most of the previous ranges except the 15.3% and the 22% increase into the 10th Oct Top so I will use these ranges as an indication point as we move higher into the 3rd Jan and as we approach that point we will be able to ascertain if we are balancing against any of these past movements and also check the cumulative volume against past points also . There are a few Fixed Cycles moving into that time period also including a 90 Deg Cycle into the 8th Jan and a 180 Deg Cycle expiring on the 30th Dec so the the 3rd Jan could set up as quite a strong reversal point.

The Curve below outlines the Main turning points and extends into the 14th Feb so within this structure we have three intermediate turning points we can trade . If price continues moving up into the 3rd Jan we could then be down till the 16th Jan where Low is indicated and we could actually trade lower than the 9th Dec current Low so we will have to wait for that movement to transpire then up till the 14th Feb for Top so at present the main focus is on price moving up into the 3rd Jan so hopefully a few days before that point we should be able to qualify one or two price points to monitor then once the Top is in place we can concentrate on managing our position down till the 16th Jan a duration of around two weeks.

Some key price levels to watch if we move up into the 3rd Jan are :

80.80 which is a 15.3% increase off the low and will balance against the prior range

85.49 which is a 22% increase and will balance against the prior range

It would be wise to mark these levels on your chart and as we move up into the target date we can ascertain if we are balancing into these points and culminating into Cycle Top.

The next level of significance is 81.00 which is on the Time Angle and is also one full revolution in price off the Low so we may get a minor pullback into the 28th Dec which is a possibility and then a small push up into the 3rd Jan around this zone.

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