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CBA

There are two Curves presented for CBA outlining a projected date for counter trend Top and a date for Main Low . Both Curves indicate Minor Low on the 29th Sept which comes in as quite a weak Cycle but it should provide us with a guide as to future direction. If we do get Minor Low around this point I am looking at the possibility of a counter trend Top into either the 3rd or 9th October which could present a good opportunity to go short as long as the market conforms to the Curve. From here the market should continue down making Low on either the 17th or 20th October which could line up with the 15th October 2018 Low which culminated in the Bear Market Low . October 17th is 122 Deg from the 17th June Low which is 1/3 of the Circle in Time an important point for reversals and also 180 Deg in longitude from the 21st April Top so we have two important time counts converging into this area . We are also 210 weeks or running out a 4 year Cycle from the 15th October 2018 Low and 262 days out from the 28th Jan Low so the calculations and the Fixed Time periods point towards a significant Low on either the 17th or 20th October .

As the Main trend is projected to be down until mid October my strategy is to look for a counter trend Top opportunity which is outlined on the two Curves . The 29th Sept could turn out to be a minor Low so I would avoid trading this point as any upside movements could be small in amplitude and short in time as the primary force is projected down . My preference would be to wait for either the 3rd or 9th October to setup as counter trend Top and if this scenario plays out and trades lower on the next bar or two a position could be entered with a time based stop above the counter trend Top date - If this scenario does play out I would probably look for a 3 or 6 month atm put option and ride it down towards the 17th October Low as long as trend conforms to the direction of the Curve and even if we close the position a few days beforehand we can wait for the 17th or 20th October to setup and then we can reverse the position after rechecking the calculations and the position of the market moving into this date .

The diagram below presents a breakdown of the four main downswings back to November 2021. The two red swings measure 16.17% and 19.76% and the green downswing measures 11.11 or 10.74% peak to trough a time period of 23 days . The second red downswing is 58 days down into the 17th June 2022 Low . If we examine the current leg down from the 8th August Top we will be 70 days into the 17th October projected Low which overbalances all of the previous time periods outlined. In relation to price we are currently 10.32% down from the 8th August Top which is smaller in amplitude compared to the previous swings but it is interesting to note that we are about balanced against the 28th Jan Low which measures 10.74% so there is a good chance that we may be repeating a similar price move down into the target date . A price of 91.84 will balance the previous range down so this will be a very handy guide if we continue to move lower but more calculations are required . Also note the 2018 Cycle ran down 15% into Main Low so my first strategy is to look for a fairly strong counter trend Top to occur into one of the target dates and from this point we can asses the potential magnitude of the downswing in relation to previous points on the map . The 2020 drop into the 22nd Sept Low was 18.39% and exhibits a similar pitch of trend to the current swing down so if we project this down from the 8th August Top we get 83.97 as another potential target which would take out the 17th June Low and provide us with some price depth if we setup for counter trend Top into the projected date. Taking 1.125% of the Top gives us 91.45 which will be an important price zone to monitor and if we break this position we should be lower so that is an important signpost to watch . 1/2 Square down from Top = 92.92 and we are currently above this level so if we do move lower this will be an important level to take out with 1 Square down coming in at 83.53 . These are not definitive price levels at this point but they do provide us with a framework to monitor as we move into the projected 17th October Low . 90.40 = one full revolution in price on The Square so this will also be an important zone but my current strategy is to look for price to move up into either the 3rd or 9th October and setup into counter Top and if this occurs it should provide a good short opportunity .





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