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CBA

Updated: Nov 22, 2022

Unfortunately stopped out for a loss with price trading above the 15th Nov Top . Will come back to this one around the 29th Nov and re assess.


Hello here is a brief update on CBA . A minor change in trend was indicated for the 21st Nov. Initially I thought this point could come in as counter trend low as outlined on the Curve but instead it appears to be playing out as a minor counter trend top formation which should provide a good point to enter short within close range of the 15th Nov 107.45 Top . On the 15th Nov I bought a 3 month atm put option so as long as the price is below the 15th Nov we are still in play even after todays little push up that failed to close above that level . The tracing below is a comparison between the swing up into the 8th August which appears to be one of the Cycles we are running up against - price advanced 15.91 points or 18.2% into this top in a time period of 53 days compared against the current move up into the 15th Nov an advance of 17.76 points or 19.8% in 43 days time . The price ranges and percentage advance between both swings are about balanced with the current swing up into the 15th Nov Top only greater by 1.5% so it is fair to say we are running relatively close to that swing in terms of price and time measuring 43 days into Top which is 1/8th of the Circle and an important time period for changes in trend . Of particular interest is the small pattern running off both Tops - notice the 8th Aug Top had a small 4 day pullback then up 4 days into minor top before the selloff . Following the 15th Nov Top we had a one day correction of about the same price amplitude then a little 5 day advance into the 21st Nov potential minor Top so these two time periods are balanced which could point towards a drop from this point . The Curve below outlines the projected direction with trend indicated down till the 28th Nov which could turn out to be Low then up till the 15th Dec for Top . If trend moves down into the 28th Nov and a good profit is on the table I may look to clear the position a day early and then wait for the 28th Nov to swing around and assess the position of the market leading into that date . From the 8th Aug Top to the 7th Nov = 90 Deg so we are outside the Square but it is important to realise that Tops and Bottoms can sometimes run out 9 days before or after these calculations but 90 120 and 180 Deg out from significant Tops can be a very good guide to the position of the market . The 21st Nov is also an important Seasonal Date and 240 Deg on the Square culminating on Minor Top could also reinforce the prospect of Top on this point . Please see tracing and notes below.





Just a quick note : Looks like the Top is in for the 15th Nov at around 107.45 so I took a 3 month put option at the money . The SP500 may move up a little tonight with the two price targets being 4014 and 4024 so hopefully we will see Top perhaps this evening around those levels - CBA could move marginally higher tomorrow but it looks like we could be set for Top at current levels . Stop will be placed above todays / tomorrows high and if we break above the 15th - 16th Nov Top I will close out . This evening I will calculate a Curve for CBA as there are two dates I am looking at for Low .



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going back in time from 28 nov to 15 nov :), just before paycheck day, hate when that happens. however seems very possible with those dates, thank you for sharing

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