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NAB

Just a quick note on NAB. Price has moved up very strongly over the last few sessions leading into the 17th Jan target date so I purchased a two month put option ATM this morning. If you look at my previous notes you can see the previous rally ran up 14 days into ounter trend Top for an advance of 5.7% and that particular swing traded around 55M units in cumulative volume compared against the current move up which is also 14 days in time which balances against the previous upside reaction although we are currently up around 8% off the Jan Low on about 1/2 the volume of the previous range which could indicate a reduction in driving force as we have exceeded the previous swing of 5.7% by around 3% in the same time period but on half the cumulative ( mass) or half the volume of the previous swing culminating into the 17th Jan Cycle date so there is a good chance we could see Top according to the calculations. Previous Cycles had advances of around 8.5% also so there is a good chance that the amplitude of the current move is balancing against past Cycles. I went back and studied the previous campaigns and in the majority of cases price came off around 8% on average culminating in Low between the first to the second week of Feb so based on past calculations we could possibly move down into either the 6th Feb or the 16th Feb which would give us another 20 days approx in the tradeand based upon most of the historical Lows being reached in the month of Feb there is a good chance that the recent 3rd Jan Low could be taken out .

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