Bitcoin

Bitcoin Curve No 1:

The two main dates to watch for Bitcoin are Mar 20 - 21st 21st culminating on the Equinox and also the 3-5th Apr. My strategy would be to wait for a few more days for the first target date to roll in and if we continue lower into this period we will need to trade lower than the 16th Mar bar to validate the Cycle.

If this turns out to be correction Low we could see price move up till 3-5th Apr which is the second timing date so we need to give the market a few more days to confirm its position it setting a new Low and then we could look at the pattern on the 30 or 60 min chart around the 20-21st to see if we are stabilizing or making higher lows off this date which could be a catalyst to go long and a time based stop could be set on the 20-21st but we need to see a new Low firstly then some stabilization on the intraday chart . If this scenario plays out the time period into the 3-5th Apr is around two weeks and this will be the next important date to watch. It is important not to jump in ahead of the Cycle dates and pre-empt the market but instead be patient and watch how the market is moving into the date and what type of pattern it is forming . The second scenario which is less likely is a move up into the 20-21st Mar then down into 3-5th Apr so thats why its important to let the position of trend align itself against the Cycle dates and then we should be in a clearer position to determine  which scenario we are setting up into.

A correct understanding and application of market structure is the first step in understanding Gann , this is a step that is widely overlooked and not considered important by many students - a good student should be able to study a price chart alone with no indicators and make a determination on market direction before progressing on to the more complicated aspects of his work and teachings. A careful study of past posts and notes will provide the student with a strong insight into pattern recognition or form reading as it was referred to and help him develop the ability to see how past movements replicate future moves. Most students will overlook the importance of this study and fail to recognize its application in market forecasting.

The outline below examines past Campaigns against the current swing up . Firstly we see Main Low on Nov 20th 2022 a three wave structure moving up into the current Mar 14th 2024 Top an advance of 369% in around 494 days so we can see that this was the largest move in terms of time against past moves but not in price. As can be seen in the notes below the past swings measure 399 and 140 days so it is important to compare the current swing against past Campaigns to get a line on what to expect in the future. Note in 2020 we had a pullback into Jan 17th which is similar in amplitude and time to the current pullback into Jan 21st 2024 and in both cases the pitch or angle of trend was also very similar culminating into blowoff Top. You cam see this which is marked with the red arrows. 

In 2022 we made Main Top on 28th Mar which was a 63 day move up off the base - In 2021 we made Main Top on Apr 14th a move of 82 days off the base so if we look at the current swing and compare the time period into our projected dates . we have 56 days up into 20-21st Mar and 71 days up into Apr 4th 2024 which could turn out to be Top . 

Both Curves are presented below so be patient and watch how we move into those dates and if the pattern on the tick charts are support a base and a move higher out of the Cycle date.The last correction was -21.6% in 12 days against the current decline from Mar 14th sitting at -12.3% so we can use the amplitude of the past decline as a gauge on what could transpire but its only a point of potential measurement as some moves can balance and at other times they overbalance so the main consideration is the Time Factor and how price is moving into that point. 

Currently price is in a small holding pattern just above the 17th Mar 64545 Low so my strategy would be to wait another day or two and see if Bitcoin is dropping into the 20-21st Mar and setting up in counter trend Low. Price will have to trade lower even if marginally below this point and date and make a new Low to qualify the Cycle. If Curve No 1 plays out and we begin to stabilize look at your 30 and 60 min charts as a tool to confirm that the 20-21st is holding and if the intraday trend is moving up making higher lows or higher Tops this could be a good indication the market is forming a base around this level and preparing for a move higher . The sketch below shows all of the recent pullbacks within the main uptrend - there were four retracements and its interesting to observe they were all around 20% amplitude but over differing time periods but we can use these past corrections as a gauge on what to expect. The current decline from Mar 14th Top to current equals -12.4% which is smaller than past declines and as a potential measure a 20% decline in line with past corrections would give a figure of 58567 but please bear in mind this is not a definitive price target but more of a gauge based on past reactions. The main consideration is the time factor and Cycle dates and it is important to observe market pattern and volume leading into these dates which which should confirm if we are running against the Curve .