Today would be a good point to buy as we appear to be holding above the 23rd May counter trend Low point. As you can see in the notes below there was a similar grade pullback into the 10th May a decline of -7.7% in four days against the current pullback of -7.1% in two days so the amplitude and time period of these points are well balanced pointing towards trend continuing higher so this could be a safe entry point as long as we hold above May 23rd which is 22° up from low an important angle to hold.
The next important date to watch comes in on Jun 3rd and Jun 6th so there is a good chance that we will continue to move higher into one of these dates which would give us another week on the long side so if we did get an extended move up this could serve as a good point to take profits. Jun 3rd looks to be the strongest out of the two date's which would present us with a three day window to expect Top to come in so if we position long today we have that area marked in advance as a potential Top which would keep us safe and enable us to take profits as move into that date.
Bitcoin has a Seasonal tendency to Top into the first week of Jun so if that occurs in line with the Curve we could be down into either Jun 17th or Jun 21st where Low is indicated - this could come in as pullback Low and if we examine the notes below we can see past declines ran out -53% - 17.6% - 15.3% so there is a good scope for a potential decline of this magnitude into either Jun 17th or 21st which falls on 90°. If we do get Top on the target date this could present a downside time period of of 14 - 18 days so once the Top is clearly set in place we could look to short into the target date and carry our position for around that time period.
From the May 1st Low up into Jun 3rd gives around 33 days and important time period close to 30 where reversals in trend often take place. Taking 1.25 of the Low price = 70835 and we are currently above that point an indication of strength. Taking 1.33 of the Low would give us a target of 75368 which would take us above the Top so I will just mark these points on the chart as reference points but the main consideration is how price is moving into the target dates and if we are lining up against the direction of the Curve. Another very important observation is that the current trend is up around 26.8% off the base against a previous campaign of similar structure that also advanced 27.1% which is significant as price is balanced but sometimes we can overshoot these markers so let's see how we move into the first time point after entering long off the 23rd May low.
Tomorrow I will look to expand on the Forecast but just for the time being I wanted to put this forward to present a timely trading opportunity to position long off the 23rd May Low.
Keep an eye on 5-6th Jun if we move up into this point we could see Top.
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