The next date to watch for Bitcoin is Apr 6th which could turn out to be Top. If you are already long and price continues to move up into this point particularly if we get an extended move up accompanied by strong volume it could be a good point to lock in your profits. In my previous post I indicated a smaller Cycle point was due on the 26th Mar which did cause price to stall for a few days but as we have now closed higher than that date and are consolidating just below that level there is a strong chance of a move up into Apr 6th. If you wanted to play it safe which would be my strategy I would wait another few days and see how price is moving into the target date then if conditions are met and we set up for Top into Apr 6th I would look to enter with a time based stop set -/+1 on that date. A time based stop means the price has to remain below the 5-6th Apr in order to keep us in the trade with the expectation of price moving lower - such a strategy avoids guesswork and puts a strict set of parameters on the trade and as long as we hold below that date the position remains active until we approach the next Cycle date. There are two scenarios that can play out the first being a move up that will take the 14th Mar 2024 Top at 73750 which looks likely at this point. The second scenario remains the same but we get a Top lower than the 14th Mar which does appear less likely due to the consolidation point at higher levels but I will make note of both scenarios just in case but the main focus at the moment is the projection of a Top into Apr 6th so the next few sessions and pattern of trend should provide us with a clear picture of how we are setting up into this point as Bitcoin does have the tendency to exhaust up into these dates so I am going to watch and see if that Top gets taken out and if the pitch of trend increases into that point.
By studying past moves we can get an indication on what to expect into the future. Previous moves of a similar time period ran up 101% and 124% from the base so if we project the same amplitude up from the Jan 2024 Low we get a figure of 77364 which is not that far off the current price level so these measured moves act as a gauge on what to expect but they are not always accurate to the dollar but they do provide us with a price projection framework but the main consideration is the Time Factor and as we get closer to Apr 6th and the range becomes clearer I will usually go back and see if we are balancing against any past price moves as we move into the Cycle date. Sometimes sitting on the sidelines for a few days waiting for a larger move to develop is a good strategy and if the market does conform to our calculations and time periods balance against past moves this can be a good signal. Another interesting observation is that one of the previous rallies came in at + 27.4% and if we project this figure off the Jan 2024 Low it balances against the 101% projection so that 77364 area should be an important intersection to watch so as we draw closer to Apr 6th pay close attention to see if we are near this level. The section of the market I am planning to trade is Apr 6th Top so I just want to see if we can take out the recent Top at Mar 14th - Below is a Curve beginning from Apr 6th projected Top containing a few minor turning points that may allow us to position in the prevailing direction of the trend. The way we would use these dates is as follows - If we do get Top on Apr 6th and price moves down to one of the target dates we could look to take profits on the short side and re enter if we set up into a counter trend Top where a time based stop would be set in the expectation of a move lower . A degree of judgement is required in interpreting these Minor Cycle dates as they could set up as either counter trend Top or Bottom so it is critical to study the position of the trend relative to these dates and if we are either setting up into counter trend Top or Bottom. Apr 9th is a low grade Cycle which means it carries little strength but if we do get a little counter trend move up it could provide us with a short term entry into the trend so please use your discretion and see how price is moving into the target dates. Apr 24th does look like an important date so if we drop into this date it could be a good point to take profits but the main focus atm is how we set up into Apr 6th so if you are already long there is considerable value in this service warning that a Top could be imminent and your position may be at risk.
My preference would be to wait a few more days to see how we are moving into this date and then " trade out " of the date once the position of the market is clear and we can see a Top is being formed. Alternatively I would like to see that 26-27th Mar area get taken out as we will need to hold above that point to sustain the move higher. My strategy would be to wait and see over the next few days how we are moving into the target date and if we setup into Top we can trade out of that point which would be the safest strategy.
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