There are two dates where Low could come in. Either Jun 21st or Jun 26th . They are both equally strong points so I will wait till Monday to see how we are holding up. The 26th falls on Wednesday so we have a fairly tight time window on when to expect Low.
As outlined in the previous set of notes there were two Cycle dates we were watching Jun 21st which was taken out today which is why I wanted to sit on the sidelines for an extra day or two to see how it plays out . The next date to watch for Low comes in on Jun 26th five days past the Seasonal time period of 90 Deg. Sometimes Tops and Bottoms can culminate around these points and at times they can be almost exact and at other times off by several days due to other causal factors playing out but they are a handy indicator to watch especially when they align against other calculations. Within the current complex displayed on the Chart there were three main drives down of varying duration and degree - notice the first sharp move down ran out 6 days with an 82 Deg Angle of decline - the second move ran down 23 days with a 68 Deg Angle of decline and the current trend will run out 36 days into the projected Cycle date of Jun 26th which was measured from the May High. 36 is an important number as it is half of 72 and 1/4 of 144 so sometimes we can look for significant time based reversals to occur around these points.
The current Angle of decline is only 43 deg meaning the pitch of trend is of a lesser degree than the previous moves down and of a longer duration which appears to be a sign of stabilization so it will be important to see how we move into the Jun 26th target date and we have the advantage of waiting for this point to culminate before taking any action. To activate the Cycle we will need a Low into this point even if marginally lower and we will need to consolidate above this point and begin to move higher otherwise no action is taken
It is also interesting to note the time period from the secondary High of Jun is 19 days in time against 36 days in time from the Main Top which is half. If we do setup for Low into Jun 26th that would be a very wise point to set a time based stop as we will need to hold above this point in order to qualify the Cycle and remain active. A time based stop is predicated upon price holding above the time point so this will provide some structure and a clear set of parameters to define the trade around. There was a previous campaign down going back several years that had a similar time stamp to the current drive down and also a pitch of 52 Deg similar in amplitude to the current decline.
The next significant date to watch is July 22nd or 120 Deg on the wheel which could turn out to be Top as indicated by several sets of matching calculations. One of the most important considerations when entering a position is being able to determine ahead of time the potential duration and amplitude of the ensuing trend which allows us to determine a time based point where the position may be at risk and also the ability to gauge the potential amplitude of the swing - by knowing these factors in advance we are able to map out the anticipated direction of the trend and identify dates where an expected outcome is likely to occur. So based on the calculations if we do setup into Jn 26th Low we could be up baring Minor reactions until July 22nd a time period of approx 27 days which balances against a previous move of similar degree. The horizontal bars marked on the chart represent the Fixed Time Cycles and although they are not exact in degree they do provide a handy framework. Measuring forward into Jul 22nd he date for projected Top is 62 days out from
the main May Top and 45 days or 1/2 of the 90 Deg Cycle out fro the Jun secondary Top which is a division of 1 1/3rd. Also from the main May Low we run out approx 82 days into Jul 22nd which is 8 days short of the 90 Deg Cycle so an important point to watch especially if we run up into this date.
The percentage of the High and Low are also marked and you will note May 1st Low came in fairly close to the 1.33% point as indicated by the arrow. Currently price is just below the 1/8th point and the next point higher is the 1/4 level so we can these price points as markers as we move into future Cycle points then we can assess the position of the market relative
to these levels. In the second set of notes below I have constructed a Minor Curve leading out of the Jun 26th projected Low which will examine three Minor Cycle points where we could look for a retracement to setup which may enable us to either re enter the market on pullback or identify if price is rising into that point allowing us to exit our position and lock in a profit. It is always wise to be patient and let these moves develop and usually a few days beforehand we are to able to study the position of the market as it is approaching the target date and determine if we are either setting up into Top or Bottom.
The main component of the analysis is The Curve outlined below - the first diagram points toward Low on Jun 26th so we must wait for the market to setup into this point and demonstrate that it is making Low to activate the Cycle - from there main trend is indicated up till July 22nd a time period of 27 days. The second Curve contains a few additional Minor dates to observe which are predicated upon Jun 26th Low - these are only Minor dates which could either set up as Tops or pullback bottoms so we must wait for price to move into these points and a few days beforehand we should be able to verify if price is lining up into a Minor Top in which case we could exit or take partial profits or alternatively if we are declining into one of these points it may enable us a counter trend entry point to add to our initial position so by knowing these points in advance and having them laid out in front of you will assist us to make a clearer determination as price is moving into these points but at the moment my main focus is on how we move into June 26th and whether we achieve a new Low and can stabilize around that point - as we move into this date we could look at a 30 min or 60 min tick chart to see if we are making higher lows and basing around this point so lets wait for another two days and see how the market moves into this date.
Gann wrote a book called The Magic Word which is a very important book and contains valuable information. One of the main themes throughout the book and also in Tunnel was his religious conviction and regular reference to prayer and asking or seeking guidance from the Lord so we know that he placed a lot of emphasis on these factors throughout his writings and teachings. Gann worked hard to acquire knowledge and he mentions that he spent over ten years worth of exhaustive research examining Scientific and Natural Law which can be very difficult areas to penetrate requiring long years of study. I believe that his faith and conviction and willingness to ask The Lord for guidance and knowledge was a key factor behind his work. Sometimes it has been my experience that I have tried to look at a particular calculation or piece of writing from every angle and decipher its meaning only to fail and come up with nothing but in this field and in this type of research these dead ends are all too common but they do allow us to change direction which can sometimes give us even a small insight so the road is sometimes difficult and we have to make a lot of mistakes to make a path towards understanding. By seeking guidance and asking The Lord for help is a good point to start whether it be in life for general issues or to try to gain a deeper insight into this type of material this is something that I have been doing over the last few months and a regular habit that I am trying to maintain. Seeking guidance and direction in life can sometimes be a difficult thing to do as we are stubborn and set in our ways and believe that we know what is best for us and the correct path to take but sometimes it is good to try and humble yourself and take the bag off your shoulder and ask God for a bit of help and peace of mind . All the best hope you enjoy the post.
Posted on June 24th :
Looks like price is running against Curve No 2 with Top into July 2nd against indicated Top of July 1st with trend projected down into July 7th . The next important date to watch is July 18th which could turn out to be Main Low if we keep moving down.
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