We are coming into this date so if the market drops and produces a Low -/+1 day we could be in position for a significant Low . The chart below outlines some range calculations and also price targets based on Square of Nine co ordinates so pay attention to the price cluster between 103.71 - 104.25 - You could watch this level on the intraday chart to see if we are setting up for bottom and trading higher off this point . If we do get Low on the 28th this could present a very good trading opportunity . I went back and examined the past Cycles to determine which one we are most likely running against . The first Cycle is 2019 as outlined in blue pen which ran 105 days from Top to Bottom a decline of 26% . The second period is 2021 which ran down 45 days from Top to Bottom a decline of 16.75% . If we compare these time periods and the Minor time periods of each swing to the current position of the market we can get an idea of what to expect in terms of price amplitude and the duration of each swing . The recent swing down has only ran out seven days so I projected this out to to the 28th June which is our first key date to watch and the time period into this date measures 14 days which is interesting as it balances against the same time period in 2021 which was the first leg down . If we do get a Low into the 28th June we could be up till the 14th July for counter trend Top then down till either the 3rd or 20th August which will run out 51 days into the 3rd Aug and 68 days into the 20th August. Note that both Cycles had Bear Lows in the month of August and significant declines of 26% and 16.75% into these Lows so if we begin to follow the Curve below we could check the current percentage measurement of each swing and look to balance it against previous swings to determine the potential amplitude of each leg . At this point there are two scenarios that could unfold and just to be on the safe side I will outline them both and present two Curves to monitor . The 28th looks like it could turn out to be Low then up till the 14th July for a 17 day move then down into the August dates for Bear Low - or Scenario two we could have a little spike up into the 28th June then down into the 14th July for Low so the next two days will confirm as to which Curve we are running up against . It is very important not to guess the direction of the market until it to conforms to the Cycle date and we have a clear indication that we are either making Top or Bottom on the outlined dates and once established we can trade in the prevailing direction of the underlying trend into the next Cycle date .
Comments