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Crude Oil

Updated: Sep 7, 2022

Update on the 18th August Crude Oil Post:

Price appears to be tracking down into the 8th - 9th Sept which is the projected Low . Notice that the current move down at 31.21% has exceeded all of the previous moves outlined in the diagrams . We are currently down 186 days in time from the 7th March 2022 Top which is 6 days past the important 180 Deg Cycle and we are also 87 days down from the 123.68 14th June Top three days short of the 90 Deg Cycle so we have two Fixed Cycles culminating around the 8th - 9th Sept an important Seasonal Date for a change in trend . Friday 10th Sept marks a Full Moon which could also be a significant causal factor for Low . The first leg down in the diagram ran out 35 days a decline of 28.79% so the current leg down into 85.08 measures 31.21% so we exceeded the prior swing by a small margin and the time period of 87 days is far greater than the previous time period of 35 days down.

Price Calculations :

2 Squares down from the 14th Jun Top = 83.18 so this will be an important zone to monitor if we continue to move down into this point . The 2nd Dec 2021 Low = 62.43 so if we multiply this by 1.33 we get 83.03 so we have to harmonic price points converging around 83.03 - 83.18 which marks the first price level . On the Square of Nine one full revolution in price = 83.15 so we have a very tight cluster of prices between 83.03 - 83.18 as we move down into the 8-9th Sept target date . If price fails to hold this level the second point to watch is 82.50.

The next two dates to watch are the 25th August which could turn out to be a counter trend Top so if we move up into this date you could wait for the next session to trade lower and enter short positions with a stop placed just above the previous Top. If this scenario plays out we could be down till the 9th September where Low is indicated so it would be prudent to wait for these dates to roll around and a few days beforehand we should be in a clearer position to determine if the trend is either setting up for Top or Bottom into these dates and then we can look to trade in the prevailing direction of the trend . In the previous post I anticipated a Low for the 11th August but instead it setup as counter trend Top which can sometimes occur . Here are some more Notes for Crude :

The current time period from the 14th June 2022 Top to present is 64 days and the decline from Top is 30.69% or around 37.95 pts. The 25th August measures 72 days out from Top and the 9th September measures 87 days out from Top so these are the two key Cycle dates that I am concentrating on and will wait for the dates to come in before taking any action . Looking at the previous swings the time periods are 39 - 48 - 44 days so the present swing measuring 64 days has exceeded all of these past time periods indicating a strong move down . The next thing to look at is the percentage decline of each swing these are - 28% - 26.91% - 19.80% - 14% with the current swing measuring 30.69% into present levels so it is clear that we have overbalanced all of the previous swings in percentage terms and in time duration . The current move down equals 37.95 points which is fairly well balanced against the 15th March 2022 swing which equals 36.97 points down so there is a bit of harmony between both of these swings in terms of price amplitude . Also note swing No 4 which contains a similar structure to the current move down with price moving down into the 20th July then up 10 days into the 30th July before resumption of trend into the 23rd August Low which is a similar pattern to the spike down into the 14th July Low then up to the 19th July Top before resumption of downtrend with the amplitude of both reactions on a similar level .

As stated it would be wise to wait for the first key date to draw closer and then we can make a determination as to whether we are setting up into a counter trend Top structure or otherwise and then once the indication is clear we can structure a trading plan around the position of the market as it moves up or down into the date . By waiting for the market to conform to the Forecast we have a clear set of parameters outlined that the market has to adhere to before taking the trade . You will make more money and reduce anxiety by waiting for the time periods to come in and then we can examine if the date is in line and conforming to the Forecast .

123.68 / 1.5 = 82.45 this is a key harmonic level which is linked from two points so it will be important to see how price moves into and reacts around this level if trend continues to move down . The next price point to watch is 83.17 which is one full revolution in price so we have two key price zones to watch which are quite close together so these are the first signposts to watch particularly if price continues to move lower.

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