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Crude Oil

The two important dates to watch are the 17-18th Oct and the 11th Nov. If trend continues to move up into the 17th October we could be Top for a decent correction but it would be wise to wait for that date to come in and a few days beforehand we should be able to qualify if trend is moving up into that point and setting up for counter trend Top . According to previous Cycles the third week of October is an important time to look for Tops - If you look back at previous Cycles we can see Tops were reached on the 19th Oct 2016 - 20th Oct 2020 and the 10th Oct 2012 in which significant declines followed so it is advised to wait for this date to roll in and examine the pitch and volume moving up into this point which will provide a strong directional bearing on whether we are setting up into Top . As outlined in the diagram below we can see the time periods and percentage increases for each upside swing within the recent downside structure . The first leg up advanced 12.3% in seven days - the second leg up advanced 13.91% in 14 days and the current advance off the 26th Sept Low has moved up 22.68% which overbalances all of the previous upswings both in time and price. The second date is the 11th Nov which could setup as Low according to previous Cycles so the 17th October will be our leading directional indicator so we must wait for this date to present itself then the future direction of the trend will become clearer . Projecting the time period from the 14th June Top into the 11th Nov projected Low = 150 days so we can use this as a comparative measure against previous Bear campaigns to gauge the potential downside time period . Looking at 2018 we made Low on the 25th Dec which was 83 days from Top a decline of 44.92% - In 2012 we ran down 120 days a decline of 30.10% into the 28th June Low and in 2011 we ran down 146 days for a decline of 34.73% so it is interesting to note that this time period is of similar duration to the projected time period of 150 days leading into the 11th Nov Low. The 11th Nov is approx 30 weeks out from the Apr 2022 Low and 344 days or the Square of seven from the Dec 2021 Low so the convergence of these two Fixed Cycles could point towards a strong reversal point.

From a price perspective we have a few calculations to consider relative to the position of the market. The High of 123.68 / 1.33 = 93.00 a strong harmonic price point so we are currently above this point an indication of continued strength . The next harmonic increment up is 1.25 = 98.94 so price behaviour leading up into this point can also serve as a strong indicator but please bear in mind these are not definitive price points but more of a price framework based on harmonic price increments . The Low price of 76.25 is above 2 1/2 Squares down from the Top so this is not so important at the moment - if we were in close proximity to 2 or 4 Squares down that would be a very important marker . It is worth noting that 1 Square up from the 76.25 Low = 94.69 which is very close to the 180 Deg point of 95.25 on the Square of Nine so this zone will be important to watch if price continues to move up into the 17th Oct target date .







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