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Crude Oil 4-5th April

Updated: Apr 1

Also comes in as a s significant date so if we take out the 19th Mar high and continue to move up there is a chance we could set up into Top on this date so if you are already long this could be a good point to take some profits and either look to play the short side if the set up confirms itself or wait for a pullback to develop before re entering. There are two scenarios that could play out so as outlined in earlier posts my preference would be to wait a few days for the target date to approach and examine the position and volume leading into that date before initiating a trade . If we do continue higher and make a new High on Apr 4-5th which looks to be the case and we start to turn down we could be down into Apr 24th Low so this is Curve No 1 which is outlined below. The second scenario is a pullback into Apr 4-5th then a rally into Apr 24th - this scenario does look less likely but as a measure of caution I have listed both Curves below and our strategy would be to wait a few days to determine which Curve the market is most likely running against. Once that point has been verified we always look to trade out of the Cycle date in the prevailing direction of the market and a time based stop would be placed at 4-5th as we will need to hold below that date and trade lower in order to validate the Cycle.

From Dec 13th Main Low up to the projected 4-5th Apr Top measures 112 days and by studying past movements of similar pattern we can see in the notes below there were four important campaigns measured from Low to High ranging in between 97 to 119 days which is interesting as these time periods are similar to the current projected time period measuring 112 days so we are 7 days short against the 118 and 119 day period but we do have a good gauge to work with . The percentage increase of each rally is also presented with the first rally increasing +15% the second increasing +61.9% the third increasing +25.5% and finally the last increasing +57.2% so the next step is to compare past amplitude against the current amplitude which should provide us with a good measure to work with.

Looking at the current advance off the Dec Low we have moved up approx 23.9% so we appear to closely balanced against the 25.5% campaign which would give us a potential price target of 85.02 which is just above the recent high at 83.85 so if we do continue to move up and setup into the target date that could be an important zone to watch as it is 180 Deg from the Dec Low and on the Time Angle plus it is balanced against the previous range so an important zone to watch.

Looking at past declines the average time period is between 11-16 days with two declines measuring 14 and one measuring 16 so the projected time period from Apr 4-5th to Apr 24th measures 20 days approx which seems to fit in with past time periods - also note the three declines measure -7.1% 7.2% and -16.3% so if we do start to come off we can use these figures as a gauge on what to expect but at the moment the main consideration is how price is moving into the target date and if we are setting up into either Top or counter trend Low which is why its crucial to await market confirmation and then trade the section leading out of that date .

Happy Easter to everyone .

If we do set up into Top on the 4-5th April and begin lower here are two Minor dates that may present an opportunity to renter the market. As these are only small Cycle points within the main trend a minor movement would only be expected. The first date is 9th Apr which looks to be the strongest out of the two with a new Moon around that date we should be on the lookout for some type of minor reversal. The main consideration is confirmation of the Apr 4-5th Top and if it is clear that we start trending lower the next minor point comes in on Apr 9th so if we have a decent move down into this point and there is good profit on the table it may be a good point to take partial profits so lets see how the market moves into this minor point. The second possibility is we set up into a counter trend Top into this date in which case we could set a time based stop just above that date in the expectation of moving lower - this would be the preferred scenario as it would provide us with a secondary entry point into the trend. As always we must wait for this point to come in and see if the market is setting up into counter trend top or otherwise and a judgement can be made once the position of the market becomes clear into this point . The second date which appears to be of lesser degree comes in on the 15th Apr with the Moon at its first quarter so once again this point could either set up as counter trend Top or Low so the advantage of knowing these points in advance allows us to be forewarned that something is likely to occur at these times and when the position of trend becomes clear leading into these dates we can either take profits or re enter the market if the conditions are in line with the forecast. If Top does set up as expected and a high price becomes clear I will use that figure to estimate some potential price targets and percentage points so we have a guideline to work with.

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