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Crude Oil

Updated: Nov 8, 2022

Some additional Notes and diagrams on Crude at the bottom of the page :

Keep an eye on 94.67 this could be an important level if we move up into the projected 7th Nov Top.

Page No 1 : Presents an outline of the 2016 Cycle and also some swings from 2011 and 2012.

Price has currently increased around 22.8% off the 76.25 Low as outlined in the first diagram - One Square up in price from the Low = 94.67 which could be an interesting price zone to monitor particularly as we move into the Cycle dates . One Square of Nine a price of 92.50 is 270 Deg in longitude from the 123.68 Top and we are currently above that point which is an indication of strength for the time being but the most important consideration is the Time Factor. One Square up from the 76.25 Low = 94.67 which is just above the 10th October Top so this will be a significant zone to watch if price continues to move up into the Cycle date . On the Square of Nine 94.75 is opposite the 76.25 Low or 180 Deg which is an important point for reversals so we can make note of this level particularly if price continues to move up into the 7th Nov where Top is indicated .

The Second set of Notes looks at 2016 which has some similar characteristics. Note Top was made on the 9th June 2016 which is running very close to the 14th June 2022 Top with [price moving down and making Lows on the 20th and 26th Sept before moving higher although the 20th Sept Low was a secondary low in comparison to the current 26th Sept Low . The AB move up was an increase of 32.5% in 77 days which is approx 9.5% greater than the current move of 22.80%. and from there price declined 18.74% in 26 days which could be a handy template to compare against the current Cycle we are in . Low was also made on the 4th October 2011 with price increasing 37.91% in around 44 days which overbalances the current percentage increase but interestingly the 44 day run up into the 17th Nov Top balances against the time projection into the 7th Nov Top which measures 42 days so both the time periods are about balanced .

Page No 2 looks at some previous campaigns measured from peak to trough beginning with the run down into the 4th Nov 2011 Low a decline of 34.73% in 155 days which balances against the projected time period into the 21st Nov Low so we could be running against this Cycle in Time but presently we have exceeded that percentage decline ( 34.73% ) so price is overbalanced relative to that swing - the current time period down into the 26th Sept Low is 104 days as indicated but if we move down and break this Low into the 21st Nov we will complete the 159 day move so if that scenario does play out I will go back and compare the percentage decline against previous swings in order to determine what Cycle we are most closely aligned with . You may need to read these notes a few time and compare the swings and study the time periods to establish the link so I will present a Curve on the bottom of the page comprising of two or three important turning dates . There is also a swing into the 3rd Aug 2016 Low for a time period of 56 days and a decline of 24.16% so it is clear we have exceeded both the time period and price amplitude on this move but it is worthwhile taking the time to examine all the major swings in order to ascertain the potential magnitude of the move . The third set of Notes is a brief breakdown of the current move examining the counter trend move into the 30th Aug Top an increase of 13.91% in 14 days so we have well exceeded the percentage increase of this move currently standing at 22.80% so this leg higher is greater in time and price than any of the counter moves off the 14th June Top another indication of strength .

The Curve is outlined on this page and we are currently moving higher off the 18th Nov secondary low so if the trend does continue to press higher over the next few days we could be Top on the 7th Nov so we will have to breach the 93.64 high even if marginally and this will qualify that date as Top and from there we could be down into the 21st Nov where Main Low is indicated for a two week move down . There is also another intermediate date within this swing the 14th Nov so if we move down into this date it may also present a good opportunity to take profits on the short side and wait for the 21st Nov to setup and confirm as Low . As always it is prudent to wait for the first timing date to come in - the 7th Nov which is an important Seasonal Degree and 225 Deg on the Square and if we do setup into High and close lower on the following bar we could set a time based stop just above this point and manage the position lower with the next time Cycle being located on the 14th Nov which could either set up as a counter trend Top opportunity which may be a good opportunity to re enter short and add to your positions or alternatively it could present as a Low in which case short side profits could be locked in . As the main trend is indicated down into the 21st Nov it would be wise to play the short side if this scenario prevails and a counter trend top formation into the 14th Nov if it occurs would be a good setup to take advantage off but at this point we should concentrate on how price is moving into the first target date and then we can zoom into the 60 minute charts to formulate a more accurate entry point . Please find Curve below .

Looks like we are holding Top on the 7th November which could be a good point to place stops at . In this section I have isolated one swing and broken it down into three points . If 7th Nov turns out to be Top we could be down till the 21st November where main Low is indicated - the minor turning points contained within this swing are the 11th and 15th and then down into the 21st Nov for main Low . As the primary direction is down it would be wise to keep an eye on the 15th Nov which comes in as an intermediate grade Cycle . If this turns out to be a counter trend top movement it may present an opportunity to pyramid short and ride the trend down till the 21st which would be an ideal situation providing the 15th sets up as minor top . Alternatively the 15th could come in as Low so if that is the case we could also look to lock in profits on the short side and sit on the side lines till the 21st Nov and assess the position of trend moving into that date . The first date of the 11th Nov is a small grade Cycle which may not carry any great affect so it would be wise to watch how the market is leading into the 15th Nov and a trading plan could be structured around this point or alternatively if trend does continue to follow the Curve into the 21st Nov Low we could also just look to ride and manage the position down into that point .

There are a few price targets and swing comparisons below which should help us determine the downside extent of the move as we move into the key Cycle dates .

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