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Crude Oil

Updated: Dec 8, 2022

Looks like we are tracking down into the 9th Dec in line with the Curve . Notice the price decline in 2018 was 44.9% and the current decline into present levels measures around 41.9% so we are almost in balance with the previous range . Projecting a 44.9% decline off the 123.68 Top equals 68.15 so this will be an important price level to watch if we continue to move lower .

The three important price points to watch are:

67.25 which is 180 Deg from the 123.68 Top

67.50 which is 90 Deg from 93.74 Top so keep an eye on price between 67.25 - 67.50 as we move down into the 9th Dec projected Low.

Also watch 70,85 so it may be wise to mark these points on your chart if we continue to move down into Low .

21st Nov broken so we should be down till the 9th Dec where Low is indicated .

Comparing the current swing down against previous campaigns we get an idea of what to expect including the potential duration and amplitude of the move . These calculations were outlined in the original post so I will try to extend on them a little . In the Notes below are outlined another three swings including 2017 2011 and 2008. The current move down off the 14th June Top as overbalanced the first two swings however we are still well short of the 78% decline which doesnt look to be on the cards at this point however the time periods of these three swings are of particular interest measuring 169 days into the 21st June low - 155 days into the 4th Oct low and 161 days into the 19th Dec low so by comparing these time counts against the projected duration of the current swing which measures 179 days into the projected 9th Dec Low you can see we are fairly close to the 2017 time period so there is a good chance that we could be running against this swing in time . December 7th is 255 Deg on the Square which marks an important Seasonal date with the 9th being just two degrees past this point - a significant point for a reversal to occur . The Circle of 360 beginning at 0 Deg on the 21st March is divided into 24 segments of 15 Deg which makes up the full Circle with the four Cardinal points located at 0 90 180 270 and 360 Deg.

As outlined in the previous set of Notes a decline of 45% which was the amplitude of the 2018 swing will balance at 68.03 so this will be an important reference point to monitor to gauge the strength of the move .

Price targets :

* 66.85 is 180 Deg in longitude or opposite the High price of 123.68 so if we do move into this point and it links up with the 9th Dec Low we should have a strong technical position to confirm Low but at this point it is only a price projection and it would be advised to wait for that date to roll in and if we do setup as Low we could be up till the 15th Dec for counter trend Top and then down into the 2nd Jan which will most likely be a Low . A price of 67.25 is 90 Deg or Square the 93.74 Top so this will also be an important level to watch . So the two key levels to watch are :

66.85 and 67.25

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