If we continue to move down we could see Low into either Fri 31st May or Jun 3rd coming out across the weekend. Either you could wait for the target date to come in and if we do setup into Low as expected look to position long out of that date - sometimes sitting on the sidelines waiting for a strong move to eventuate is a good strategy and usually a few days before the Cycle date the position of the market will provide us with a clear indication of whether we are setting up into either Top or Bottom. The notes below show the projected time period into Jun 3rd as 50° compared against past declines of 43° 42° 23° so whilst we don't match exactly we appear to be fairly close to the first two periods of 43° which could be a good indication of potential Low. Previous declines were - 24% - 23% - 18% against the current amplitude of -13% so we are well below past declines in percentage terms but the Time factor is the main consideration to watch as time will turn markets irrespective of the position of price but they are still interconnected.
The next Minor date to watch is May 27th coming in tomorrow night which could turn out to be a very small reversal point as outlined in the Curve so as long as price holds below that point we could be in a position to move lower so you could enter short and place your stops just above this date but we will have to move lower into May 31st- Jun 3rd projected Low so this would only be a very short term trade of less than a week. A price zone to watch is 78.90 for the 27th and whilst this point may not be exact the main focus is on trading lower out of the 27th May. A potential target price for Jun 3rd Low could be around 74.80 which is around -4.6% which may allow us with a short term trade and ensure stop placement just above May 27th as we need to hold below that date and trade lower to activate the Cycle.
As for some price calculations we have just broken through several harmonic points which could be viewed as an indication of weakness.
1.125% of the Top = 76.58 we are below this percentage points.
1/2 Square down from the Top = 77.08 and we are also below that level.
1/2 Square up from the Low = 77.79 and 1.125% off that point also = 77.90 so there is a culmination of natural harmonic points that we are below which could point towards lower.
Time is more important than price and when Time is up space movement and volume will increase as Gann outlined so if we do continue to move down into the Jun 3rd projected Low keep an eye on that price point of 74.80 but we may have to revise it once we move into that point so my focus atm is not so much on what the Low price will be but the pattern and vol leading into the target date and validation of that Low. The next date to watch is Jun 10th or Jun 13th the second being the stronger date so if we do move up into one of those dates that would give us a week or so long exposure but we need to have that main Low validated first then once that's in place we can begin to calculate upside target levels
Tomorrow I will present some additional notes and charts but the main outline and Curve is here containing several dates out towards the end of Jun so when trading these movements is it important to wait for the market to setup into the date and ideally align with a price level and once the setup is validated we look to trade out of that date in the prevailing direction of the trend.
At the moment I just wanted to concentrate and present a detailed analysis on Crude instead of covering more instruments in lesser detail however over the next week I will try to look at some other Indices and perhaps Bitcoin but for the moment let's just concentrate specifically on Crude and put forward a detailed review. My focus now is to resume with this project on a full time basis so your ongoing support and interest is appreciated and will hopefully allow me to continue to present updates and Forecasts on a regular basis.
We have moved down into the target date so keep an eye on 3-4th Jun around 73.00 level
Part 2 :
Price is currently holding above Jun 4th Low which is in line with the Forecast - initially I was looking for a Low to come in between Fri 31st - Mon 3rd Jun but sometimes the Cycles can run 1 day either side so if this Low holds we could be in a position to move higher. As outlined in the notes below there are three past campaigns under observation that we could be running against. By studying past movements we can get a line on what to expect in the future so comparing current market structure against previous swings should reveal some interesting clues. The first campaign ran up +19.8% in 22 days with total volume at 22.45M and within that swing we had a pullback of 5 days for a decline of -7.7%.
The second campaign ran up + 20.4% in around 36 days with total volume at 17.66M and also within this swing we had a -7.5% decline in 2 days. The third and final campaign ran up +27.0% in 59 days with total volume at 14.56M and we also had a similar magnitude pullback at -7.8% in 6 days.
The current advance off Jun 4th Low measures approx +3.26% compared against past advances of + 12.5% + 8.3% + 8.6% so if we take these previous ranges and project them up from the base we have a guideline on what to expect. Whilst they are not always an accurate and absolute measure of future price they do provide us with a pricing framework based on past examples. It is interesting to note the two advances in the notes are around 8.3% so projecting this off the Jun 4th Low gives us a potential upside target of 78.53 which looks like a realistic projection. The third measure of 12.5% seems a bit excessive so I have just singled out the two 8% rises to begin with. The second observation is the time component which measure 5 - 14 - 10 days into the first Minor Tops so past time periods may provide us also with an indication on the possible duration of the first leg up. The first two Minor dates to watch are Jun 10th being Monday and also Jun 15th coming out next Fri so I will provide an outline of how the trend may play out .
If you are already long Crude keep an eye on the 10th but bear in mind this is only a Minor Cycle and ideally we are looking for a pullback opportunity to enter long or add to our original position . The second date of Jun 15th could either come in two ways - firstly we could possibly continue to advance up into that point in which case it may be wise to take profits especially if we have an extended move up into that point and the price amplitude aligns with past advances around +8.3% or the second scenario that could play out is we could see a pullback into this point which may provide us with a second re entry point so ideally I would like to wait till Monday and if we move higher than that point we could be up till Jun 15th . The third date to watch is July 2nd which is an intermediate point and could turn out to be Top if we move up into that point . This works out to be around 25 days out from the base which balances against our first time period of 22 days into Top as outlined in the notes. The present Low is approx 174 days out from the Dec 2023 Low almost measuring a complete 180 Deg Cycle and also 60 days out from the first Apr 5th Top which points towards this Low holding in position . Currently we are sitting above 69.92 which is a full Square down from the High so as long as we maintain above this point it is a good sign. Looking at the 30 min chart there are three small pullbacks measuring 1.1% so that seems to be the current scale on the intraday chart and we are making higher Tops and Bottoms which is another sign of strength . Will update tomorrow and look at some price calculations.
There are two Curves presented containing three dates so ideally I would like to see how we move into Mon 10th which could turn out to be Minor Top as indicated by Curve No 1 then down to Fri 15th for counter trend Low so the pattern and pitch of trend leading into Mon should give us an indication if we are setting up into Minor Top or alternatively if we move beyond the 10th we could be up till 15th which is 11 days off the base then the possibility of a pullback into Jun 21st . So we have two timing structures to work with and outlined earlier it will be important to keep an eye on the amplitude of this rise against past advances which average + 8% so it would be advisable to put a horizontal marker on the chart for reference and if we do move up into that point on the target dates it could be important. As mentioned tomorrow I will try to put up some price calculations but for now I just wanted to present the short term Curve so we have a time frame to work with .
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