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Crude Oil Forecast

Looking at the diagram below we can see the recent swings on the end of day chart . By calculating time and price coordinates we can use them as a reference point to see if the current position of the market is balancing against these points either in price or time . Gann referred to this as balancing the range and time periods as some markets will run out a similar period of time between swings and also a similar amplitude of price either in points up or down and also in percentage terms . If we study the three counter trend reactions on this chart we can see the first swing down was 48 days the second swing was down 38 days and the current swing which is projected into the 19th April Low measures 43 days so this projection down roughly balances against the previous two corrections but is out by a few days in terms of technical comparison . The first drop was 15.24 the second drop was 22.98 and if we apply these measurements to the current swing down we have two potential price points to monitor and list in the diary as a measuring tool .

130.50 - 15.24 = 114.76

130.50 - 22.98 = 107.52 so price is currently well below these points indicating that we have overbalanced price against the previous two ranges .

Swing one = 20% down

Swing two = 27% down

In terms of percentage loss the current swing down into 93.81 current price = 28% so the current swing down is balanced against swing two however Time is the most important factor and Time will overbalance price which is why it is important to be aware of the Timing dates and whether there are any similarities in market structure as we approach and move into these points in particular the position of price in relation to the Geometric Angles on both a daily and weekly chart .

If price does continue to move down into the 19th April it will be 43 days from Top which is important as it is 1/8th of a Circle and important culminations in trend often occur around these dates which is 1/8th of the calendar year . The second diagram below is the recent swing down which has been deconstructed so we could also take note of the Minor swing 36.50 drop and use this as a potential measure if we continue to move lower into the 19th April Low . The next important date comes in on the 18th May which has also been included in the Forecast however at this point in time we should just concentrate and wait for the 19th April to come in as it could turn out to be a significant opportunity and as we approach this date we will be in a clearer position to refine our price targets and determine whether this point is setting up as either top or bottom and once that is complete we can attempt to study both of the dates which may allow us to calculate the approx amplitude of the prevailing trend .

Here are some additional notes on price which should be kept in the diary and used for future reference

1/8 of the high = 113 3/4

1/4 of the high = 97 1/2

1/3 of the high = 86 3/4

1/2 = 65

1 Square down or 180 Deg = 108.17 so we are currently below this point .

2 Square down or 360 Deg in longitude = 88.37 which could be an important downside target to monitor in conjunction with other factors such Angles and range retracement levels.

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