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Crude Oil method

In this letter I will outline some methods and the approach I use to assemble a Forecast . Firstly it is important to determine where you are located within the market and in relation to the Fixed Cycles and Seasonal points on the Square of Nine . By studying past market movements and by deconstructing the swings you can gain a clearer insight as to what Cycle you are running against and the amplitude and duration of those swings. Gann kept several Master Forecasting Charts or Composite Charts for various stocks and commodities which is one of the key factors that allowed him to determine turning points in the market in conjunction with his other various methods. In order to properly understand and decipher what Gann was doing you will need to replicate his Charts and study his books in great detail not just a cursory glance like many people do . Page No 1 outlines the various Cycles which have been broken down into their various price and time components . The first swing down ran into the 20th Jul 2021 Low a decline of 15% in 14 days - the current swing down is around 7 days and 18% into the 22nd June 2022 Low so we have overbalanced the percentage decline but below the time period of 7 days . The second swing ran down 24% in 43 days - third swing ran down 12.69% in 27 days - fourth swing ran down 28.75% in 35 days and then the 2012 ten year Cycle ran down 30% in 119 days so it is important to compare these past time periods against the current position of the market to determine which one we are repeating . Like Gann I keep large Composite charts for various indexes and commodities which allows me to compare the amplitude and duration of past swings against current swings in the market . The notes below are a template however they do provide us with a good visual picture for comparison but the real value lies within the Master Charts which are constructed in a more sequential and clearly defined format . So getting back to the swings outlined on page 1 it is interesting to note that the 2018 swing measures 27 days in time which is very close to the 23 day time period projected out from the 14th June 2022 Top = 7th July where Low is indicated . If the trend does continue to move down into this date and breaks through the 22nd June Low we can use these percentage figures as an indication to the magnitude of the decline so by having a table of percentage decline figures at hand we can quickly calculate if the current swing down is balancing against any of these points as we approach the key Cycle dates . There are a few harmonic price points to watch and these are noted on the first page .

123.68 / 1.25 = 98.94

1/4 of 123.68 = 92.76

180 Deg in longitude on the Square of Nine = 103.50 so we are below the Square and in a position to move lower .

270 Deg or 3/4 around the Square = 93.50

360 Deg or a full revolution in price = 83.50

At this point these levels are only an indication and they could be helpful to monitor around the Cycle dates .

The Curve below contains four key reversal dates extending out till the end of July. As outlined previously the 28th June was an intermediate date and it appears that we could be counter trend Top into that date so if you are short at this point ensure that a time based stop is placed just above the 28th June Top price as price is required to stay below this point in order to qualify the Cycle down . If June 28th holds we could be down till the 7th July where Geo Mercury is at Max Nth Declination for a decline of 9 days which will balance against the previous time period into the 22nd June then we could be up till the 14th Jul for counter trend Top where an advance of 18.5 - 20.5% is indicated then down till around Fri 22nd or Mon 25th July for Low . The time between AB = 23 days which is fairly well balanced against the time period of 27 days from 2018 . If we hold below the 28th June Top a drop into the 7th July looks like quite a strong possibility so that is the current focus at present .

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SP500 July 1st - 8th Top

Just making a quick note - more calculations and research is required to try and narrow the timeframe down but be careful around this one week time window especially if you are already long and we hav

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We might just get that short term bounce after the 7th July ...such a drastic drop thus far.


Thank you, Grant! Such a clear explanation. Above and beyond. You are very kind to explain all of this. I will be spending time reading this through to learn and understand. Many thanks.

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