The first part of the Analysis examines previous swings which have occurred in Crude. By examining the time periods and price amplitude of past swings we are able to get a line on what to expect into the future. Quite often the time periods between certain Cycles run very close and by comparing past movements against the current position of the market in some cases we are able to determine the likely duration and price amplitude of the movement. As you can appreciate this is not an exact science however it does provide us with a roadmap that can be used to create a forward based model or price Curve . Markets do have a tendency to repeat movements in terms of time and price even 10 and 20 years apart so it would be wise to make a study of the past and keep a table of figures that can be used as a comparative guide . If you study Ganns notes closely you will see that he kept such Tables measuring the time periods between Tops and bottoms and vice versa also Tables on price movements and through this process he was able to detrmine the likely extent and duaration of certain price movements acting under a similar set of conditions .
In the Notes below I have provided a sketch for the the 2021 and 2018 Market which both ran into Dec Lows . These are the only two campaigns that made Low in Dec along with 2008 so it appears we could be running in line with one of these Cycles . The first swing is 2021 which ran down 37 days a decline of 26.9% making low on the 2nd Dec . Next we have the 2018 Cycle running down 83 days a decline of 44.9% making low on the 25th Dec 2018. Following the lows both campaigns had significant runs up into the 7th Mar and 23rd Apr. The current swing down from the 14th June Top to current measures around 178 days in time which overbalances both of the time periods however it is interesting to note that the 2018 swing ran down 44.9% against the current swing down into the 9th Dec 2022 which is currently around 43.3% so it appears we are very close to balancing against this price movement which could be a very strong signal if we continue to move down into the Cycle date which I will explain later .
It may also be of note to examine some additional price swings which are presented below. They include 2019 2017 and 2008. The two swings of interest are 2017 which ran down into Low on the 21st Jun 2017 for a time period of 168 days and 2008 which ran down for a time period of 160 days so by comparing these time periods against the current swing which measures around 178 days into the 9th Dec you can see whilst not exact but it does provide us with a guide on what to expect . Time is the most important consideration and Time will overbalance price and not until sufficient Time has been allowed to run out will any big move up or down take place . So far we have examined the most important swings which all made Low in the month of December so this will give us a trade plan to work with.
The Second diagram below is a breakdown of the current swing running into the 9th Dec Low. From the 9th Dec price advanced into the 15th Dec which was Forecast 11 days in advance on the 28th Nov so from here we could make low on either the 16th or 19th Dec then up into the 26th Dec for Minor Top then down into the 2nd Jan 2023 where Main Low is indicated . It is very IMPORTANT to wait for the Cycle dates to come in and trade out of those points . The 16th - 19th Dec is quite a weak Cycle and I probably would look to be trading off that point instead I would wait for the 26th which comes in just past Christmas so around that time I would be looking for the market to move up into that date and make counter trend Top then down till the 2nd Jan for Low. It is important to wait for these dates to roll in and a few days beforehand we should be able to determine if the market is moving up and setting up for counter trend Top in line with the Curve . As the Main trend appears to be down we should only be looking for counter trend Top setups to develop so keep a very close eye around the 26th Dec for Minor Top to setup . If we do move up into the 26th Dec I have projected the previous range of 9.74 up from the 70.08 Low which will give us a potential target of 79.82 which will balance the range of the previous move so this will be an important point to watch particularly if we run up into that date . That will be a 17 day movement off the 9th Dec Low which will break down into two minor sections of 6 days and 7 days up. From there we could have a 7 day drop into the 2nd Jan which is quite a clearly defined Cycle point so at this point there is a good chance that the 9th Dec Low will be taken out on that date.
Crude Oil Curve and the trade Plan :
As mentioned earlier price could begin to reverse and move higher off the 16th or 19th Dec Low so that will be our first timing point to watch which should give us a lead on market direction . I would not suggest trading this particular swing as it is only a Minor move and may be short lived so please wait for the 26th Dec Cycle date to come in which should be a bit stronger and more clearly defined - If we move up into this point and make counter trend Top we could see a minor swing lower down into the 2nd January which presents as an intermediate strength Cycle point so we should get a strong movement out of this date . From there we could be up till the 14th Jan where Top is indicated an upside move of around 12 days then after that we have another two key turning dates on the 23rd Jan and 13th Feb 2023 so we will just make a note of these Dates for future reference and wait for the market to move up or down into these points . The main emphasis should be on waiting for the 26th Dec or around that time to setup as counter trend Top then down till the 2nd Jan which will be the first swing we are looking at then if that scenario plays out and we get a strong down move into the 2nd Jan it would be wise to take your positions off even a day or two before the Low then we can concentrate on the second leg of the trade which is from the 2nd Jan up till the 14th Jan so we have two sections of the market to work with.
Price calculations :
Gann would quite often use the percentages of Highs and Lows as a price measurement point to determine the strength of price.
1/4 of the Top = 92.76 which served resist for the 7th Nov Top although not exact it was quite close to that point .
1/3 of the Top = 82.46 which held the 18th Oct Low and the 1st Dec Top quite a strong harmonic level so we can mark these price zones on the chart and as we move either up or down into the Cycle dates we can check these levels against the position of the market to see if we are making Top or Bottom on or close to these points.
Looking at the 26th Dec and projecting the previous range up as outlined earlier we get a target of 79.82 which will balance the previous range in time.
1/8th of the 7th Nov Top = 82.03 so this will be an important level to hold below.
1/2 Square up from the 9th Dec Low = 78.68 so we have a cluster of three levels within close range that should be marked on the chart and if we do move higher into the 26th Dec we can see if any of these levels are culminating against our Cycle date.
On the downside keep an eye on 66.75 which is 180 Deg in longitude from the 14th June Top so if price runs down into the 2nd Jan this could link up as a key price level which should also be marked on the chart as a future reference point .
It is 17 days from the 9th Dec Low into the projected 26th Dec minor Top and a price of 81.00 is on the Time Angle so as long as price remains below the Square we should be in a position to move lower into the 2nd Jan. If price moves up into the 26th Dec in line with the Curve we should be able to pin down one or two price points to watch.
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