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Crude Oil update

Here is an overview of the previous notes presented a few days ago . There are three Cycles outlined the first is the 2018 swing down into the 18th June Low a decline of 9.41% in 26 days which seems to be a close match to the current time period we are running out so we will come back to this model later in the piece . the second Cycle is 2019 which declined 26% in 105 days so the time period on this swing is far greater than the current 2022 swing which measures around 18% from the 14th June peak into the recent 22nd June Low . If we project a 26% decline down from 123.68 we get 91.53 which is a fair way off and would take us below the 11th April Low so we will just note this percentage decrease as a figure to monitor as we approach any future Cycle points . The third swing is from 2021 a decline of 16.75% in 45 days so the time period is greater than our 2022 projection which I will explain later . and we have already exceeded the percentage decline down to current levels .


There are two dates that I am working with and I will try to construct a trading strategy around these two dates so we are looking at trading two swing points which will give us two sections of the market to trade . I would recommend waiting till the 7th July which is only a few days away and then we should have a clear indication as to how the market is setting up into this point . The first scenario is outlined in Curve 1 so if we run up into the 7th July we could be setting up for counter trend Top so if that scenario unfolds over the next few days I will look to refine the Cycle date and see if we can reduce it down to an hourly point but that is predicated on the market moving into a counter trend top on this date and the top will have to be higher than the 29th June to qualify. If this scenario plays out we could be down till the 14th July for Low which is interesting as the time period on the first swing down measures 8 days and the second leg down into the 14th July balances against this count also for a cumulative peak to trough decline of 30 days in between AB which is very close to the 2018 time period of 26 days so there is a chance we could be repeating this pattern so keep your powder dry till the 7th July and we should have a clearer picture at that point .


The second scenario is a Low into the 7th July then up till the 14th July for counter trend Top then down till the 8th or 14th August for Low which is in line with previous Lows . If you go back and look at the previous campaigns you will find that August was a Seasonal month for Lows so there is a good chance main trend will be down into one of these dates. If we do get Low into the 7th July we should be up till the 14th July then roll over into August Lows as detailed on the Curve. The time period for this projection measures 23 days which is also very close to the 2018 model at 26 days so it would be prudent to wait a few more days to see which Curve the market is running against . Notice the counter trend Top periods outlined in orange pen are 9 and 10 days which is fairly close to the current counts and also note the percentage increase outlined in green pen is around 13.5% on both swings so I have projected this price up from the 101.53 Low and it equals 115.70 so this price will balance the amplitude of the last two Cycles which will provide us with a gauge if we do move up into the 7th July for counter Top . 101.53 + 1/2 Square = 111.79 we are above this point - 101.53 x 1.125% = 114.22.



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Thank you Grant! Very clear and concise. Appreciate your hard work.

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