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EURUSD

Updated: Jun 21

Just a short note to watch Jun 3rd which could come in as Top then down to either Jun 17th or 21st. Will update in more detail later.




Top came in Jun 4th one day past the Forecast date with trend down so far. The next date to watch is either Fri Jun 28th or Tues 2nd July which could setup into Low. Out of the two dates July 2nd looks to be the strongest so lets see how we move into this date and whether it sets up as Low. Initially I was looking for Low to come in around 17-21st Jun which gave us a time period of 13 - 17 days short in this trade with current price off around -2.2% from the Top. The chart below goes into a bit more detail examining time periods and fixed Cycle counts from previous Tops and Bottoms - This is part 1 of the analysis which is based around the projection of a Low into Jul 2nd which presents us with an opportunity to either wait for that point to come in or if you are already short and trend continues down into this point we have forewarning that this could potentially setup as Low. In part 2 of the analysis I will try to locate a possible short entry point within the current downtrend if possible that may allow us to ride the trend down into Jul 2nd if that does setup as Low. Then if this occurs the next step is to try to ascertain the duration of the rally and locate a potential date when it may terminate.


Part 2 :


If we do setup into July 2nd for Low as outlined in the previous notes we could be up till either July 18th or 22nd where Top is indicated. Jun 18th 2024 looks to be a Minor Cycle Top so if we were looking at going short I would use this point as a stop loss zone - in order to qualify the Cycle we will need to remain lower than this point and move down so pay close attention to that point if entering short as the current trend looks quite weak with recent reactions only running a few bars up. Entering short around this point would give us approx a week short exposure before our position becomes at risk around Jul 2nd projected Low.

Knowing these dates in advance and the duration of a move is a significant advantage very few traders have which gives us the ability to examine the position of the market leading into these dates and position accordingly. There is also a Minor date outlined in the Curve which is Jul 8th-9th but at the moment is it difficult to ascertain exactly how it will setup but my expectation is that it looks more like a counter trend Low which may enable us to enter the trend if it sets up in line with the Curve . In this instance I have outlined two Curves which both point towards Top around Jul 18th or 22nd so we could either make Minor Top or pullback Low into the 9th so we are prepared to take advantage of this date either way it plays out. Past rallies ran out 21 - 23 - 22 days against the current projected time period of 20 days into Jul 22nd which measures 20 days so it is in balance with past time periods and at the Seasonal Degree of 120 Deg another important factor. This point is also 45 days out from the recent Jun Top - 135 days out from the Mar Top and 145TD out from the Dec Main Top so there are three important Fixed Cycles culminating around Jul 18-22nd. Past advances were quite significant and have been tabled for future reference so if we do move up into the target dates we can look to balance the swing against past price amplitude which will give us a gauge to work with. As you can appreciate it is difficult to cover every instrument and provide a detailed overview in which I have done here. There are multiple layers of calculations and hand drawn charts required to assemble these Forecasts and I would prefer to submit a detailed Forecast on one or two instruments outlining specific dates and other details as opposed to providing a blanket coverage on several markets lacking in any detail which is quite often what is presented.











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