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Gold Jun22

The recent trend structure in the Gold market displays similar technical characteristics to the 17th March 2008 Top and also the 29th February 2012 Top so by examining these two swings and comparing them to the current market position we are able to get a line on what the market will do as we move into the future.

Firstly studying the 29th February 2012 Top we ran down to the 16th May 2012 a time period of 77 days . The second move to take note of is the 17th March 2008 which contains a three wave sequence running into the 1st May low running out a 45 day cycle or 1/8 of a year from peak to trough which is an important point that can often coincide with significant tops bottoms and even counter trend movements within the trend structure . Also of note is the ten year cycle running out from the 29th February 2012 Top to the current Top at 8th March an indication that a large Cycle has expired and the and the direction of trend has clearly dropped out of that point ..

There are two models presented that contain three important Cycle dates so I have drawn up two Curves that we could follow . As mentioned before it is always important to wait for the timing dates to come in and then assess both the position and direction of the market as we move into these dates that way a few days before the date arrives we should be in a clear position to quantify the direction of the market and the potential amplitude of the projected swing . By waiting for the dates to come in you will preserve capital reduce stress and confusion and by acting at the right time once the cycle point has been confirmed the appropriate risk and stop calculations can be set and if the market continues to trade in the correct projected direction we run with the trend up until the next date however if the market trades below the Cycle date a time based stop will be used to exit the position minimizing risk and then we can await the next signal to arrive and act accordingly .

The next important Date to watch is the 20th April which could potentially turn out to be a low as indicated on the Curve below then up to the 2nd May where counter trend top is indicated then main trend down to the 18th May -/+1 which could turn out to be main low . My advice would be to wait for those dates to come in and as we approach those points we will be in a clearer position to determine if the market is either running up or down into the cycle dates and then we can study price in relation to the position of the geometric angles and squares and if any of these points culminate with the cycle dates it can provide stronger clarification on the markets position . You will make more money and preserve your capital by waiting for the cycle dates to arrive and then trade in the direction of the forecast once that point has been confirmed . This will give you a clearer viewpoint and you can confirm these future points once they arrive in time . Also please bear in mind that some of these forecast dates could actually turn out to be tops instead of bottoms or vice versa which highlights the importance of waiting for these dates to arrive and then if the market is moving down into a particular date that was indicated as top we can just change our strategy and go long instead of go short . Usually the position of the market will become clear a few days before we move into the target date so we have ample time to setup a trading plan and once that date has been confirmed and the price moves in the projected direction we usually a few minor dates where we could take profits or pyramid if the market structure presents itself .

A few technical points of Note :

  • the 29th March 2022 low is above the 1x2 angle which comes out at 1868 so it will be important to see if price can maintain this angle .

8th March 1673 low up to the 8th march 2072 high gives a range of approx 400 points with the midpoint coming in at 1873 which is close to the position of the 1x2 angle so if the market breaks this point it will be an indication of weakness especially if these points culminate on a time cycle date.

1 square up from the 1673 Low = 1755

2 squares up or a full rotation of 360 Deg = 1840 a very significant zone to watch if we move down into this point

720 Deg or two full circles up from 1673 = 2016

1 square down from the 2072 Top = 1981

2 squares down or a full rotation around the circle = 1893 a significant point to monitor which is fairly close to the midpoint of the range and about 20 points over the position of the 1x2 angle up from the 8th March low . These price targets have been noted in the diary and can be used as future reference points to monitor but the most important consideration is the time cycles and how price is moving into or out of these points and the pattern of trend that is being formed . It is important to wait for the Cycle date to arrive and let the position of the market confirm whether a top or bottom is being setup at that particular point and once the market trades either higher or lower out from the Cycle date this can be our point of validation and then we can trade in the prevailing direction of the forecast and set our stops below the cycle date which is what Gann would call a time based stop . Then if the market does trade below the Cycle date where Top or bottom was indicated we will be stopped out for a predefined loss.

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