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NAB 17th Jan

So far most of the Bank stocks are holding above the 3rd Jan Low which was predicted a few weeks ago. NAB is an ASX listed stock that was incorporated in 1962 which has options and is quite a liquid stock to trade in . Currently trend is moving up in an orderly manner and there is a good chance that we could make counter trend Top into the 17th Jan so I am waiting for that point to come in so hopefully a few days before that date we can determine if stock is setting up for Top in which case I will look to buy a put option if trade conditions are met . The first set of Notes present a breakdown of the recent swing and it is interesting to note that the projected time period into the 17th Jan balances against the previous swing which measured 14 days also leading into the 30th Nov Top so this seems to be a naturally occurring time period within the current structure . If we do make Top into this date we could be down into the 6th Feb where Low is indicated which will give us 20 days in the trade so I may look at taking out a 2 month put option atm which is a comfortable fit. If we examine the previous upswing into the 30th Nov price amplitude was 1.72 or 5.7% so we can use this measure as a projection based off the 3rd Jan Low which gives us an upside target of 30.84 so at this point we would balance against the previous range in time and price so there is a fair chance price could move up strongly into this zone over the next few sessions . The cumulative volume on the previous swing was 65.39M units so it will be interesting to see if the upswing into the 17th Jan carries the same mass which could be a strong indication that upside momentum is expiring into the Cycle date. There is a cluster of prices located between the 30.77 - 30.90 level which are outlined below calculated on the basis of the previous swing. The section we are interested in trading is between the 17th Jan projected Top into the 6th Feb projected Low so by looking at previous down swings we are able to get a line on what to expect in terms of price amplitude . Previous swings declined 8.5% and 8.2% so there is a good chance that a price drop of this magnitude could be in order so once the 17th Jan price point is established we should be able to produce some downside measurements and look to manage the trade as we move into those points .


The second part of the analysis examines the similarity between the 2013 and 2023 Cycle running out a Ten year pattern. The first thing to observe is the total time period between the main Oct 2013 Top into the main Feb Low which ran out 98 days which balances against the current down swing which measures 96 days into the projected 6th Feb Low so there is a good chance that we could be running up against the 10 Year Cycle. Also notice the 15 day time period into counter trend Top which balances against the current projection however the months and dates were different but it does highlight the reoccurring sequence ten years apart . There is a good probability that we could trade lower than the current 3rd Jan Low as the main time period has not run out . The current period from the 2nd Nov Top into the 3rd Jan Low measures 62 days so another 33 days may be required from this point to balance against the Ten year Cycle which lines up against the 10 year Anniversary Date.

So it would be wise to keep track of this stock as we edge higher into the target date and possibly make Top . There are another two or three important dates that are connected with this stock which I will outline in the future but the present focus is on trading the current projected section between the 17th Jan - 6th Feb Low so once that section has ran its course we will return to the Chart and endeavour to plot out the next section of the market.




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Important question: cba analysis says it might be up until the 14th feb, but NAB will hit top on 17th Jan


Knowing bank stocks they often move in unison. Will 17th Jan be a minor top date for cba as well?

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