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NAB Trade

Updated: Aug 25, 2022

Here is an upcoming trade I am looking at . Price has come off the 17th Aug Top down around 5.15% so far . Looking at previous sections of the market which are outlined in the notes we can see that in 2017 we dropped 5.22% into the 8th Sept Low a time period of 22 days and then advanced 10.5% up into the 1st Nov for High . The second section for comparison is the 2018 Cycle which dropped 25 days into the 26th Aug making it a three year Anniversary date from the projected 26th - 29th Aug Low . We could see Low on either Friday or Monday if price does continue down into the target date and in order to qualify the Cycle we will need to trade lower than the 9th Aug low even if marginally which is around 7.5% down from Top . It appears we are running out a five year Cycle from the 1st May 2017 Top into the 21st Apr 2022 Top which completes 1/4 of the 20 Year Cycle and also note the 17th June 2022 Low runs out five years from the 28th June 2017 Low so there is a strong probability we are running against this period . A 7.5% decline which is the same amplitude of the 2017 down swing will take us down to around 29.11 and clear the 9th Aug Low which is what I am hoping will occur . Forecasting where a Low point will occur is only one part of the equation with the true test of skill is within forecasting the projected time duration and amplitude of the price swing which completes the price and time matrix . The next Cycle point following the projected 29th Aug Low is the 9th Sept so price will ideally have to run up into this point and clear the 18th Aug Top which could equate to a 8-10% rise depending upon the strength of the move up . If we do set up into the 26-29th Aug Low I will be looking at a three or six month call option atm with a time based stop set just below the Cycle date so if we can move up into the 9th Sept and clear the 31.47 Top I may take a profit if price achieves 7-10% within this period . That will be the first section of the campaign I am looking to trade and depending on how we move up into the 9th Sept I may consider taking a put option off the Top or perhaps wait till the 19th Sept which also could set up as a strong point as it is 90 days out from Low so it will be important to see how price is either moving up or down into this point which could also be a strong trigger for another option position . There are a few price calculations below and as we move into the projected Low we will look to align those levels against the position of the market . Previous upswings had rises of 10.5% and 12.6% as detailed in the notes . So if price does move up into the 9th Sept and take out the Top I will most likely take a profit it is within 7.5% of the underlying then have a look at STO which is projected to drop into the 9th Sept and see how that scenario is playing out .

Very sorry my phone has just ran out of credit so will update the photos and charts tomorrow which leaves us with a few days to get ready for the trade .

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