The first page looks at the recent move up from the 17th June Low . Notice there are two downside ranges that have been highlighted . The first range down is Minor running 10 days into the 29th Aug Low for a 4.6% decline and the second swing down ran out 15 days into the 30th Sept Low which was a 7.4% drop in a slightly longer time period . These two declines are useful as they could give us an indication on how far the current down move will run so it is important to compare past ranges and price amplitude to determine the likely duration and magnitude of the price swing . From the 1st Dec Top at 18887 we are currently down around 3.4% which is under both percentage targets so we could expect more downside in the next week or so to balance against the previous ranges . I have projected 4.6% down from the 1st Dec Top which gives us an initial target of 18019 and the second target down is 17490 which is a 7.4% drop so both of these points could be important and should be marked on the charts as reference points if we continue to move down into the Cycle dates . Think of these levels as road signs - they are not exact all of the time but they will provide you with a price structure based on previous movements that should be watched particularly as we move into a key Cycle date . The Curve below outlines three important dates to watch extending out till the 13th Feb 2023 . If we hold above current levels we could move up into the 26th Dec which is the first key date to prepare for . We should be patient for the next few days and wait for this date to approach as that will be the first date we are looking to trade OUT of . If the market continues to move up into that date there is a good chance we could set up for counter trend Top so hopefully a few days before this point we should be able to determine if the market will align with our model and set up into Minor Top . From the 26th Dec trend could be down till the 2nd Jan where Main Low is indicated so this swing trade will only be around a week so if we get some good profits on the downside it would be wise to exit even a day or two beforehand and wait for the Main 2nd Dec point to come in and you could even just sit on the side lines for another week or so and just wait for this date to come in if you choose . This is the first swing section I am concentrating on and if we do move down into the 2nd Jan we could be up till the 13th Feb for Top but before that there is another intermediate Cycle due on the 16th Jan so if we move up off the 2nd Jan Low the first date to watch is the 16th Jan so that will be our first signpost to watch and from that point we should have a good idea of where we are headed and can plan accordingly even if it means taking a break for a week or two and waiting for the next setup to come in . It is important to wait for the Cycles to come in and then once the dates are validated and match against the direction of the Curve we can then trade ( OUT ) of that date - this is the safest form of trading as quite often price and time will line up into these points providing a clear sense of market direction so by waiting for these points to come in we increase our probability of being on the right side of the market .
There are a few price Notes and levels that can be drawn on your charts as reference points.
2 Squares down from the Top = 18339 so we are currently below that point
4 Squares down from the Low = 17802 so if we move down into the 2nd Jan this could become an important price point to monitor but the percentage decline of the two previous ranges at 4.6% and 7.4% will become strong markers if they align into the 2nd Dec target date . The post below is the original Forecast for the 30th Nov Top so it may be worth another read to acquaint yourself .
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