SP500

The diagram below is a breakdown of the recent swing beginning with the 5th Jan Top .

The orange swings are the small counter trend reactions running up 373 pts in 9 days then 367 pts in 13 days so we can see that these two swings share a similar price amplitude and time period. When studying the market it is important to break the market down into its minor and intermediate swings to gain a clearer insight into the underlying pattern of trend . The next three larger swings are outlined in red pen beginning at point A we ran down 704 pts in 52 days to make low on the 25th Feb - The second swing ran down 1001 pts in 79 days terminating at point D on the 17th June , this swing down was greater in price amplitude and longer in time . The third swing down from EF ran out 60 days a decline of 834 points terminating on the 14th October Low , this time period was similar to the swing down measuring 52 days although the price swing was around 134 points greater . The next two swings are outlined in green running up 523 pts in 33 days then 689 pts in 60 days so there was not much symmetry between these two swings although they could become handy reference points to compare future movements against . The current move up from the 14th Oct Low is around 414 pts in 16 days so we have overbalanced the two previous intermediate time periods of 9+13 days as outlined in orange pen and price has also exceeded these two minor swings which is interesting . If the current trend continues to move higher we have the 523 pts swing as a template but more work is required to determine both the length and extent of this move . The 14th October Low is approx 120 Deg in time from the 17th June Low and 145 pts down moving down at just over 1 point per day. The current swing down from the 5th Jan Top is 1327 pts or 27.5% so if we compare this against the drop into March 2020 Low which was a 35% decline we are still 7.95% below this movement but please bear in mind these are only comparative measurements and the most important consideration is the Time Factor. Looking back at some previous Cycles which are outlined below we can see price ran up 13% in 71 days making top on the 4th Nov which links in with my projections - the second swing in red pen made low on the 5th Oct 2011 and ran up 20% in 23 days time making top on the 28th Oct then the final swing in green increased around 24% from the Low so we have a few percentage measurements to balance against the current move up which may be a useful guideline . The current swing from the 14th Oct has increased 11.85% so a 13% increase = 3944 and a 20% increase which balances against the 2011 Cycle would take us up to 4189 or just below the March Top . These are only measurements at present so we will have to wait for the timing dates to come in and see if we are repeating against these numbers.

The two dates to watch are the 7th Nov which could come in as a counter trend low if trend does pullback and stabilize into this point and if that occurs we could be up till the 14th Nov for Top so this is the first scenario that could present so it would be wise to wait a little while and see how price moves into the 7th Nov and then we will be able to ascertain if we are moving in line with the Curve .

The second scenario is trend continuing to move higher into the 7th Nov for Top then down into the 14th Nov for Low which will be outlined on Curve No 2 so as suggested please wait for the Cycle to come in and then we will be in a clearer position to determine pattern of trend from that point . In part 2 of the analysis I will present some price calculations so we have a framework to study .