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SP500 Brief Update

The current move seems to be running in line with 2002 which saw Bear Low on the 10th Oct. That particular move declined 20% in 49 days as outlined in the diagram and then ran up to the 3rd Dec an advance of 24% . I am not suggesting that a move of that amplitude will occur over the same time period but it serves as a good template to compare against the current position of the market . If we compare this move against the current leg down we can see that we are currently down 44 days in time which is only five days short of 49 days. Price dropped 20% on that move compared against the current swing down which is only 17.14% so far so a price of 3460 would match the amplitude of the 2002 swing an important figure to make note of as quite often markets will repeat ranges and run out very close to previous time periods . From 2002 we will run out the 20 Year Cycle and from the 5th Oct 1992 we will complete the 30 Year Cycle so we have two important Time periods culminating in the first week of October 2022 . Notice the first leg down in red pen ran out 21 days into the 6th Sept Low and the second leg down ran out 18 days into the 30th Oct a balancing of these two time periods on the downside although the price amplitude between both swings was marginally different . The move up into the 12th Sept ran out 6 days an advance of 233 pts which is very close to the the current swing up which has also ran out 6 days and 222 pts into Top so I would be very careful around the 3806 level as it could turn out to be Top . Forecasting these smaller moves requires precision and a good understanding of Cyclical convergence although the larger Cycles tend to be more clearer and easier to interpret especially when there are other supporting factors that move into place . Initially I was expecting a counter trend Top move into the 10th Oct which still presents as a significant date so as mentioned earlier we should wait for this date to roll around and see if the market is either setting up for Top or Bottom into this date and then once the direction of the market has been established we can position accordingly . The fact that the market has ran up 222 points and balanced against the previous counter trend move is a warning to exercise caution on the long side - the first move up into the 12th Sept traded 19.69B units in six days compared against the current up move that traded 19.84B units in the same time period so the cumulative mass between both moves is in balance . The third diagram displays the gap up on the 60 minute chart - Notice the two small rallies leading up into the gap ran out 99 and 114pts and both swings had a gap on the same day with price running out 97 and 107 pts into Top - both moves displaying a similar technical pattern and balance of volume . Two Squares up from Low = 3826 Price is currently below the Square at 203 Deg 55 " so keep a close eye on 3804 as this point could turn out to be very strong resistance and should trade lower off this point . This week I have spoken with my Boss in regards to reducing my hours so I can devote more time to the website and my research so hopefully over the next few weeks I can get things back on track and present a few more Forecasts . I have also been working on getting Gann Trader back up and running which has been very difficult as it is an old DOS based program that requires a lot of configuration so I am speaking to the Company in America to try and get this sorted out and operative as it is the best platform for this type of research so it would be great to include these charts and calculations in the analysis so please bear with me in this regard . Thanking everyone for your support . Regards Grant

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