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SP500 Curve

Updated: Nov 28, 2022

The two strongest dates are the 9th and the 15th Dec so these will be the key directional dates to watch and the market should give us a strong indication a few days beforehand if we are running in line with the Curve or setting up for something else . It is more profitable to wait for these dates to come in and then we should have a clear indication as to the position of the market and whether we are exhausting into these points and running against previous ranges or creeping into the date with low volume . By having a table of previous ranges in time and price we can seek to match the duration and amplitude of the current swing against past movements to get a line on what to expect into the future . Markets have a tendency to repeat or run very close to past Time periods so we can use this tool to identify the approx duration of a price move and whether we are balancing against past time periods as we move into the Cycle date. Looks like the market is off tonight - the 25th - 28th does not appear to set up as a strong Cycle so when uncertain it is prudent to wait another week and prepare for one of the upcoming dates which should produce a very strong and sustained move in particular the two key dates outlined - that is where the profit will be made by sitting back and waiting for those two Cycles to occur. The Chart below depicts the key price levels to watch which could also be used as an intraday tool to pinpoint precise price levels . If it is possible you may wish to print this chart out and apply a cross hair tool to the levels and the dates below to pinpoint important levels especially for intraday timing . but its main function is to be used in conjunction with the Cycles as time and price will only shift when a Cycle is complete and at these termination points is where the larger moves happen. I will try to update this Chart everyday and as we move into the key Cycle dates we can examine the position of price in relation to these price levels .

Keep an eye on 4039 and 4045 if we do move up into the 28th these are key levels to watch

The first page is an outline of the recent upswings that have been broken down into their respective time and price components . These three swings have been selected because they represent the largest moves down beginning with the 5th Jan Top . The first counter trend rally ran up 33 days making Top on the 30th March - an increase of 523 pts or 12.7%.

The second swing ran out 60 days an advance of 689 pts or 18.9%. And the current move up from the 14th Oct Low into the ( projected Top ) of 9th December will run out 57 days which balances against the 60 day time period leading into the 16th Aug Top . Initially I was looking for Top leading into the 15th Nov and since that point we have had a marginal three day pullback so it appears that we should move past that point looking at the current position of the market . Currently we are up around 537 pts off the base so we have exceeded the first range of 523 pts by a small margin although we are well below the second range of 689 pts leading up to the 16th Aug Top . Projecting 689 pts up from the 3491 Low will give us a price target of 4180 and if we project the percentage increase of 18.9% of the base we get a figure of 4152 so it will be of particular interest to watch the 4152 - 4180 zone as we move into the Cycle date to see if we are balancing against the amplitude of the previous range . The 15th Nov is just past the 90 Deg Angle from the16th Aug Top so if we hold below this point we could get a small selloff into the 29th Nov which is only a minor Cycle point . then up to the 9th Dec where main Top is indicated then down into the 15th Dec for main Low which is 180 Deg in longitude from the 17th June Low so it could be the case that we are running out a low to low Cycle. The 15th Nov is a key date to watch so if we do get get a marginal selloff into the 29th Nov and make low into this date it could present us with a timing opportunity to enter long and ride the trend up till the 9th Dec but the 29th Nov will have to set up as counter trend low pattern in order for this scenario to play out . Please bear in mind the main trend is projected up into the 9th Dec so we are looking for a counter trend low opportunity to present itself so we can enter off this formation in the direction of the trend and it is IMPORTANT to wait for these dates to roll in before taking any action and usually a few days before the target date we are able to determine if the market is running in line with the Curve and either setting up for Top or Bottom . The 29th Nov is the only minor cycle located within the current time period leading into the 9th Dec Top . Alternatively we could wait for the 9th Dec to come in and once that position has been confirmed we could take shorts from that date but we will have to wait for that date to roll to around to determine if the market is setting up for Top or Bottom.

Part 2 :

Page No 1 is an outline of the main swings as outlined above detailing all of the previous ranges in time and price - The 4152 - 4180 target level is derived by projecting the previous 689 pt range up from the 3491 Low so if we do trade up to this level and make top on the 9th Dec in line with the Curve it will be important to examine the price amplitude and see if we are balancing against any past ranges which should provide us with a strong level of confirmation that we are reaching Cycle High . Another interesting note is the 28th Nov is approx 45 days from the base which could setup as a Minor Top. I have revised the Curve which is presented below - the two key dates to watch are the 5th Dec which could possible setup as a pullback opportunity - then the 9th Dec for main Top - then down into the 15th

Dec for a strong Low - The 15th Dec measures 180 Deg out from the 16th June Low so we could be working out a Low to Low Cycle into this point . As the main trend is projected up into the 9th Dec we should be looking for minor pullbacks to occur enabling us to enter long so we can ride the position up to the 9th Dec where main Top is indicated . Notice that the previous reactions within the recent up move measure 213 pts in 2 days then 122 pts in three days so if we do pullback into the 5th Dec counter trend low we can use these swings as a price gauge to determine the amplitude of the swing and if we are balancing against previous swings . The 5th Nov is one month out or 30 days from the 4th Nov Low and 52 days off the 14th Oct Low. If price moves up into the 28th Nov and makes Top we could be down into the 5th Dec for minor Low then up into the 9th Dec for Top then down into the 15th Dec so it would be advised to be patient and wait for those dates to come in and let the position of the market determine if it is either setting up for top or bottom . In the next few days I will try to calculate one or two important price levels for the 28th Nov if we continue to move up into that date and if we do setup a short position is warranted it is important to use a time based stop just above the Cycle date however we should be able to narrow down one or two targets to write on the chart as we move up to that date . Forecasting the Minor dates within the main swing can be quite difficult so please bear in mind that these minor dates may run opposite the Curve and come as Top instead of Bottom and vice versa - usually the larger Cycle dates are more clearly defined and easier to locate as they usually link up from several points and align with the Fixed Cycles and Seasonal dates on The Square .

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