Here is an updated bar chart and Curve for the SP500 indicating counter trend Top for the 5th May then down into the 17 - 18th May where Main Low is indicated .
The 5th May is an important Seasonal date on The Square of Nine and is 45 Deg in longitude from the Vernal Equinox point or 21st March which is date to expect important Tops and Bottoms to occur .
The 5th May is also 90 Deg from the 3rd Feb 4595 counter trend Top so we could be repeating the same type of formation that previously occurred .
It is important to understand what Time period and Cycle you are currently running against and that is why a well scaled paper chart will give you a clearer perspective of where you are located within the market Cycle and what possible price amplitude to expect on the projected swing up . Note the 25th Jan 4222 Low which is the bottom of the first downswing is 90 Deg in time from the current 29th April Low at 4124 which could indicate that we are running out a 90 Deg Low to Low Cycle and there is a possibility that we could move up to the 5th May which would match the previous counter trend structure so that is a strong technical possibility and the best thing to do would be to wait for this date to draw closer and then we will be in a clearer position to determine if we are running against the Curve and setting up for counter trend Top .
The last counter trend reaction was 373 points in 9
days so we can apply this measure to the current 29th April Low as a gauge .
The projected swing up to the 5th May is 6 days providing the 29th April holds as Low
There are three counter trend top formations outlined on the chart that have been labelled in time and price .
Swing 1 : = 373 points in 9 days a rate of 41.44
Swing 2 : 302 points in 7 days a rate of 43.14
Swing 3 : 142 points in 3 days a rate of 47.33
So the first step in the analysis is to investigate these repeating structures and calculate a table of figures that will be furthered refined at the end of the analysis to determine the potential amplitude of the upswing .
By adding these price swings to the 4124 Low we get :
4497 possible
4426 possible
4266 to close we can rule this out
Comentarii